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I'm thinking MGS4 with the bundle will be around 475-500k. That'd still make it the #1 PS3 game in Japan in one week I think. If not, it would be by the following week. The second weeks of MGS2 and MGS3 indicate that yes the game is front loaded. MGS2 dropped to like 87k and MGS3 dropped to 123k. Still, if it hits 500k with the bundle, I think 800k is likely.