I think Obama will win it, but it will be very, very close. He has charisma - he has the minority vote and he has re-energized U.S. politics like no one since the days of JFK. However, he has some reasons to be thankful for. First, Bush and Cheney have run this country into the ground. Second, the economy is horrible, we are in a very unpopular war with no real progress, nor were we greeted as liberators. Third, gas prices are at record levels - and even OPEC asked why. Fourth, unemployment and lack of health insurance.
My dad is retired AF and I can remember from being a kid that I walked into the hospital and getting looked at. Same thing at the emergency room. I had never heard of a copay, COBRA or paying for a prescription. It was the best healthcare I had seen to date. Now? I am at my new job, but because I started on a weekend day, I can't get healthcare for two months. TWO FRIGGIN' MONTHS! I was told since I started on the 1st, I'd have healthcare. Didn't happen. So, I am basically screwed. I would have to pay $1,200 for healthcare for ONE MONTH under COBRA.
Living without healthcare is very hard. You get sick, you are screwed. Yeah, you can go to a hospital and get treated, but you are gonna have a big out of this world.
Folks that blast social medicine should go 6-7 months without healthcare. I tell you - I could care less about picking my own docs - as long as I get one that cares, that's all I want.
The reason Obama won't have a landslide is - the Harold Ford effect. Tenn. congressman - and he had some serious mo. However, being in the south, someone made an ad about a white woman saying 'I had a blast, Harold.' and folks voted for the other guy. Thankfully, the entire U.S. is voting, not just the south. And folks have proven, especially Dems, that they are pissed off with Bush and his policies. They will choose anyone but Bush.
I saw a story about Chuck Hagel saying he'd consider being Obama's VP. That would seal an Obama win. I wouldn't mind seeing him on the ticket.
For the record: Obama, FTW. I don't want my son to have to fight in Iraq. I don't want to see folks have to go without healthcare. I don't want to see a leader not talk to our enemies. No, I want to see someone in office who will exercise worldwide diplomacy. I want someone who can bridge the racial divide - who can work with both parties. And I want someone who will support the troops in wartime and when they decide to go to college. They have fought for this country, and they deserve great healthcare, funds for college, not a ticket back to Iraq.