I'm expecting at least 20 mln!

The Source has spoken.

I say this again

ONLY

FF13 & GT 5 will cross 7 million on PS3...

with GT 5 making 10 million
____________________________

@The soruce

are the pre-order numbers you gave RETAILER or CONSUMER level..for MGS4??

I agree with Darth, cause I believe he's more reasonable than Crazzy.

7-10M is definitely too much but now that you mention GTAIV sales and 3M MGS4 sales (which could actually be pretty realistic) it's certainly going to be higher than most expect. 6-7M is maximum? 5-6M more realistic? Hmm, with some (very much) luck MGS4 could even become the highest selling MGS game yet. Not sure about the numbers though... Maybe 4.5-5.5M? Unless they mess up of course...

The source is one smart guy

What is Wii kart?

 I think his post indicates that they are consumer level.  Unless he believes that there will be a second shipment before the week is done so that the stores can get above 200k for the first week.  

Just like in the USA not all stores take preorders in Japan, so the preorder data is scaled up from the retailer in the preliminary data, just as weekly sales data is.

But I've been doing some research on the preorder data with some big games:

Galaxy got to a reservation level 25% below week one sales by scaling the prelim data

Brawl and DMC4 were 20% below week one sales as well.

A quick look shows that among games to sell over 100k, week one sales on VGC/MC/Famitsu tend to equal 1.2x  the scaled preorder data in Japan from the prelim data.

So with MGS4 at 203k or so now in scaled preorders it should do at least 240k week one if supply is there...