Now, don't get me wrong, EVENTUALLY, the PS3 will pass the 360 in WW sales. But some of you make it sound like the PS3's weekly total will permanently double once this game is released. I just don't get it. No historical evidence suggests this will happen.
First point, MGS has been on a steady decline in sales...
| Pos | Game | Console | Publisher | Hits | Score | Sales | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  | Metal Gear Solid |  | Konami | 9,761 | 7.82 | 5.59m |
| 2 |  | Metal Gear Solid 2: Sons of Liberty |  | Konami | 10,576 | 7.85 | 5.56m |
| 3 |  | Metal Gear Solid 3: Snake Eater | | Konami | 13,693 | 7.87 | 3.97m |
The next MGS game is about 1m in sales. Now, seeing that PS3 does not have a tremendous lineup right now and that MGS4 does look like a superb game, I think it will turn around the trend. However, at best it will sell 6m over its lifetime, i.e. not in the first few weeks. Plus, I don't think MGS has ever been accused of being a system seller. GTA, FF, GT, sure. MGS no.
Speaking of GTA...(top PS versions)
| 1 |  | Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas | | Rockstar Games | 12,753 | 7.83 | 17.13m |
| 2 |  | Grand Theft Auto: Vice City | | Rockstar Games | 5,223 | 7.83 | 14.20m |
| 3 |  | Grand Theft Auto III | | Rockstar Games | 5,613 | 7.79 | 11.60m |
| 4 | |||||||
| 5 |  | Grand Theft Auto: Liberty City Stories |  | Rockstar Games | 4,500 | 7.16 | 4.86m |
| 6 |  | Grand Theft Auto IV |  | Rockstar Games | 33,175 | 7.74 | 3.71m |
This is a series that has proven to sell consoles. GTA4, which is split on two consoles, has almost outsold the last MGS game already on just the PS3. It caused, notice past tense, about a 200k jump in sales for one week. ONE WEEK. That was even less of an effect than what Halo 3 did for the 360.
Furthermore just look at the trends for the first half of this year.
Wii is continuously on an upward trend.
360 is essentially flat, if not a little bit moving down.
PS3 is definitely on a downward slope.
No, I am not talking about the specific slope of the last few weeks, but an overall average of the entire graph. The PS3 had a very nice change in sales patterns between 2007 and 2008. This will not happen in 2009. PS3's sales will remain about the same as this year. The large jump this year is solely due to a combination of changes in Sony's line. Better sku options, price reduction, and a good assortment of decent games.
That is not happening this year. The sku's are not changing and there will be no significant (>$50) price drop, if any. There have been a couple big titles released. But, that alone hasn't changed much.
The PS3 will continue to average <200k per week through October. About the same as the 360. Then it will have a holiday marginally better than last year. (<5% change).
Sorry, too many of you are making the same mistake you did with Motorstorm, UTIII, Heavenly Sword, GTA4, GT5P, DMC4, and every other game that has been mis-hyped as savior. MGS4 will be no different.
