I just jumped in head first. I bought one from Buy.com and I'm sure they move a lot of units so their stock is probably a lot fresher than most. That said, you have to figure that even microsoft, in their bullheaded ways, has figured out SOME of the reasons behind the red circle of death and have addressed it to some degree in those going out the door now. I suspect the failure rate of newer units will be a lot lower -- even before we see a 65nm or motherboard redesign.
I figured it will probably be OK and the 1 year warranty will at least cover me for that time period. I was looking for something new to play games on and even though I didn't like the price of the console AT ALL, the 360 is the current best bet given the software library of 360 games and all the original xbox games that are backward compatible. The XBLA game list is growing as well...
Also, if you are currently sitting on the fence, I wouldn't count on a huge price drop after 65NM introduction. I'm not sure why everyone thinks that a price drop will coincide with the release of Halo 3, but that is exactly the OPPOSITE of what has historically happened in console sales (assuming desperation has been reached). The fall lineup on the 360 is SOLID and my guess is that they will milk it for everything it is worth through the christmas holidy (when people are less concerned about price) and price cuts will come next spring. Plus, can you imagine the anger from everyone that just bought an Elite if they drop the price 100 bucks 2 months after introducing it? Of course it will depend on Sony's pricing moves, but if Sony doesn't move this year on price I don't think MS will. Even if MS does without Sony doing it first, I'd bet on 50 bucks being the cut...
I hate trolls.
Systems I currently own: 360, PS3, Wii, DS Lite (2)
Systems I've owned: PS2, PS1, Dreamcast, Saturn, 3DO, Genesis, Gamecube, N64, SNES, NES, GBA, GB, C64, Amiga, Atari 2600 and 5200, Sega Game Gear, Vectrex, Intellivision, Pong. Yes, Pong.