You could also be perfectly right but the fact remains that GTA IV certainly did not cause any real hardware boost and Wii Fit is coming. It's a little like a John Wayne western when he chivalrously lets the other guy take the first swing and give it his best shot. And when he swings and hits nothing but air, then the Duke hauls back and cold cocks the S.O.B.

Sony and MS just took their very best shot and never laid a glove on Nintendo and now it's the big N's turn and I don't believe they're going to miss and this one is going to hurt, real bad.

Are those assumptions still around that the HD consoles will somehow defy the odds and maintain perfect market inertia? I never quite got that sort of mindset. They've both been on an overall downward curve for a while now (the 360 especially, the PS3 slightly), and even the most anticipated 'core market game of 2008 couldn't keep them boosted. Seriously, don't expect the 360 to ever even come close to 50 million; it will be lucky to break 30 million, given the slowdown in demand for it. The PS3 is a harder one to spot for certain, since it's not yet hit its peak in Europe and is only now hitting its peak in America, but the 360's peak has come and gone in all 3 regions. It's all a steady downhill ride from here for it, over the next half-decade (or less if MS discontinues it like they did the original XBOX).

You are wrong. 50 million for the X360 is far more likely than 30 million. You draw too many conclusions from just one month of sales.

Did you miss the info here? http://vgchartz.com/forum/post.php?id=792566

The original Xbox sold 24 million. A serious sales analysis shows that the X360 is still on track to double that, especially if you consider the overall sales so far in the year 2008. Even if you concentrate on the disappointing April NPD USA numbers, you'll discover a year-over-year increse. We might be right in the middle of the X360s sales peak right now, who knows, but "the peak has come and gone in all 3 regions" contradicts all availabe data (especially Euro-data).

With the production up, and only going higher, it is inevitable.

Probaly will not happen for another year or two, but eventually it will come.

End of generation market share:
Wii -  52%
PS3 - 31%
360 - 17%

Did any one else notice the ps3 market share drop to 21.9% this week...... It had almost 28% of the sales this week so how could it's % drop was there an adjustment that I missed?

stephen700 said: No it's probably going to stay around 45% - (1)The X360 and PS3 will get price cutts, (2) the PS3 game library is getting several more notable games this year + (3) first big year for blu-ray marketing on PS3. (4) Over xmas the consoles all get a massive sales boost Wii, X360 and PS3 all BUT the numbers tend to even out more - probably due to SUPPLY CONSTRAINTS - If nintendo can suddenly find a way to double production (i doubt it ) they may prove me wrong.

 1) It is unlikely that they will do so anytime soon as both seem to be in damage control mode, tourniqueting the flow of red ink.So while they will definitely lower the price the Wii may already be over 50% by then.

2)  As notable as GTA4 is? The biggest game of the generation and it couldn't even slow down the Wii on its release week (the one where it pushes hardware the most). While the increased good games help if it is games that turn off the majority of the market (the casuals and semi-casuals) and if a game that has a high appeal among casuals (GTA4) couldn't boost either console that much then I doubt lesser games will (MGS4 might as it is bundled).

Which bring us to GT5 as the next likely candidate to raise sales very high (MGS4 should do ok but I doubt it will give a huge % boost to sales outside of Japan, and there only by virtue of the PS3's low sales). FFXIII is a mostly hardcore game so a lot of people will already have bought a PS3 for it when other games that interest them came out. This doesn't meant it won't have an aeffect, but it will only be a Halo3 sized one and given the way the Wii shrugged that off with a smaller monthly production than when FFXIII comes out I doubt it will change much.

 3) Blu-Ray's victory already helped boost NA numbers this year but Blu-Ray itself needs to take off faster than it has so far for it to move a significant amount of consoles anytime soon.

 4) I used to agree until last Christmas season when the Wii held its own quite well as it had 47.8% of the market, thus growing its near 40% marketshare of back then, and the increases production from the beginning of the year (1.8M in Jan 08 as opposed to 1M in Jan 07) and the planned production increase to 2.4 millions means that the stockpile is going to be bigger by a substantial amount.

 I think the picture will be clearer when Wii Fit launches as Nintendo likely will ship many consoles for it.

It's going to happen before the end of this year.

If The HD consoles sell another 10million units by the end of the year bringing their total up to 40million. The Wii would have to sell another 54million units to reach 50% market share. Thats 1.8 million a week.

I don't think thats possible.

 That would be a 66.67% share (80M out of 120M total).  They would only have to sell another 14M units to reach 50% share, or ~470k a week.