Now Do You Think Nintendo Will Reach 50% Market?

[Sri Lumpa]

stephen700 said:
No it's probably going to stay around 45% - (1)The X360 and PS3 will get price cutts, (2) the PS3 game library is getting several more notable games this year + (3) first big year for blu-ray marketing on PS3.

(4) Over xmas the consoles all get a massive sales boost Wii, X360 and PS3 all BUT the numbers tend to even out more - probably due to SUPPLY CONSTRAINTS - If nintendo can suddenly find a way to double production (i doubt it ) they may prove me wrong.

 1) It is unlikely that they will do so anytime soon as both seem to be in damage control mode, tourniqueting the flow of red ink.So while they will definitely lower the price the Wii may already be over 50% by then.

2)  As notable as GTA4 is? The biggest game of the generation and it couldn't even slow down the Wii on its release week (the one where it pushes hardware the most). While the increased good games help if it is games that turn off the majority of the market (the casuals and semi-casuals) and if a game that has a high appeal among casuals (GTA4) couldn't boost either console that much then I doubt lesser games will (MGS4 might as it is bundled).

Which bring us to GT5 as the next likely candidate to raise sales very high (MGS4 should do ok but I doubt it will give a huge % boost to sales outside of Japan, and there only by virtue of the PS3's low sales). FFXIII is a mostly hardcore game so a lot of people will already have bought a PS3 for it when other games that interest them came out. This doesn't meant it won't have an aeffect, but it will only be a Halo3 sized one and given the way the Wii shrugged that off with a smaller monthly production than when FFXIII comes out I doubt it will change much.

 3) Blu-Ray's victory already helped boost NA numbers this year but Blu-Ray itself needs to take off faster than it has so far for it to move a significant amount of consoles anytime soon.

 4) I used to agree until last Christmas season when the Wii held its own quite well as it had 47.8% of the market, thus growing its near 40% marketshare of back then, and the increases production from the beginning of the year (1.8M in Jan 08 as opposed to 1M in Jan 07) and the planned production increase to 2.4 millions means that the stockpile is going to be bigger by a substantial amount.

 I think the picture will be clearer when Wii Fit launches as Nintendo likely will ship many consoles for it.