I'm stealing this from myself, and adding some stuff. Be warned; some might sound a bit weird, but the numbers are "correct"

I'll sum it up by region.

Japan: Wii Fit has sold 2000K over 24 weeks. That's an average of 83K/week. It has only dipped below 30K once. Let's say it maintains 25K/week for the next 25 weeks. That means 625K. Then, for the christmas weeks, it will sell 600K in total. A bit on the high side maybe, but I think 1M more is a safe bet. Total for Japan: 3M

Europe/Others: According to reports, sold out, and has sold 1.25M already. It is likely to remain around 100K for the next 5 weeks at least, making 500K more, and for the next 20 weeks, it should manage 50K/week. That makes 1.5M before chrismas. Christmas could sell 1M in Europe, but 600K is a safe bet. Total: 4M

America: Preorders already at 500K +. Sales for the first 5 weeks should be 1M (excluding pre-orders) and it should easily stable at 50K/week for the rest of the year. Totalling 2.5M before chrismas. Now, chrismas times should be 1M, but 600K is again a safe bet, totalling 3M.

Notes: "Christmas times" is about 5 weeks of time, so not just the direct christmas weeks.


Total: 10M by end of 08.



Okay, non-copy and paste now.

First week america prediction:

I think people are overly optimistic. Pre-orders are at 500K, and I guess it won't sell more than 700K, as most casuals will wait to see if it works.

Prediction: 768K (one of my favourite numbers)

Another article from CNN pretty much endorsing Wii Fit. http://edition.cnn.com/2008/TECH/ptech/05/20/wii.review/

Wii Fit is really getting positive reviews.

Are you guys anticipating shortages? Because I'm seeing some huge numbers here that I just don't think Nintendo will be able to supply, considering it's bundled with an accessory.

Nintendo said there would be at least a million for launch so that's why I went with 1.35 million. Not unreasonable I think.

OK 2.5 M in the first month. Precisely determined by the use of the WAG* game prediction formula

* Wild Assed Guess

Here is a video of the NY City Central Park event.

From the CNN article:

"Many of older set wasn't even aware there were two products in play, the Wii and the Wii Fit -- and some of the trainers seem to have trouble explaining that concept -- so it seems to us that a bundled SKU could do good things for Nintendo."

This is my main concern, and why I think that some current predictions are running too high. I agree that the casual exercise crowd could potentially be really into this, but having to track down and set up an entire video game system in order to be able to use a separate peripheral might be asking too much... My parents have a hard time working DVD players; we're asking a lot of a crowd that isn't all that tech-savvy.

If they want to tap the Oprah crowd, Nintendo will have to make this *really* easy for people. At the least, I think this means bundling.

Older people won't buy Wii Fit as much as women and people looking to get into fitness at home. Those people aren't dumb and probably realize you need a Wii to play Wii Fit.

And if they are dumb, it will definatly keep the console seeling.

1st Week in NA: 1.25 million
End of 2008 worldwide: 15 million
Lifetime sales in North America: 28 million
Lifetime sales worldwide: 45 million

It ain't too damn hard to set up. The board works by wifi and for my money thats something that Nintendo did well. I found the Wii simpler and quicker to get on my secure network than any computer. The real pisser is that the Wii never drops connection with my wireless router at the other end of the house. My brand new Sony computer not six feet away can't seem to keep a connection even with a USB range extender.

The Bluetooth also is more reliable than the Bluetooth in my cell phone, or my wireless head set. Oh yes, you do have to put batteries in the board but they are at least provided.