There's no Wii new "casual" user that would upgrade to any of the two other consoles. Only viral marketers/astroturfers/shills like jasonnc80 above, which are so obvious to spot, would "upgrade".
These people are annoying because they always spit the same crap nonsense, and as it's pure BS, add no valuable information. You can spot them easily too : "I'm a huge Nintendo fans since years, but got bored by the lack of games on Wii, and upgraded to XB360".
Anyway, MS does the right thing to try, but unfortunately, they aren't doing it right.
What Nintendo is doing is not making casual games, that's nonsense that those saying them, actually believe their own BS. Nintendo targets the downmarket, and is moving upstream then. These games from MS are already in the upmarket.
People mix downmarket with casual, they will be disappointed, I'm sure.
Before trying to pull people from the Wii, they need to understand Nintendo's strategy, and they clearly don't. I just hope for them that this is not their secret weapon against the Wii, or the failure will be even more epic.
What's interesting, is that they're already starting to alienate their own upmarket consumers, like the predicted behaviour of competitors which are targets of a disruption strategy.