you havent took in huge game releases, price cuts and massive xmas sales into consideration.

but still i congratulate you for taking the time, to display an opinion of sales

I would think that the Xbox360 and the PS3 sales will increase as the end of the year draws near and the game library expands with all the new games coming out.

I would definately expect an increase for the 360 year on year for this year and next year, and we haven't even got the pro down to $300 yet. I would expect Microsoft to make their moves a little later in this year, the shrunk gpu chips are already being produced so all we need to see is what they're going to do.

By 2011 I believe the PS3 will be around 70 million total console sales.
" " " 360 " 40 million " " "

Why do people say the average will be way above 170K for Ps3? Last year it averaged 145K throughout the year. X360 averaged 155K.

X360 will likely average 170ish and Ps3 220ish. For the long run, I think those numbers are relatively good. Taking into consideration that he is talking about 5 year cycle, and sales will step down a bit at the end.

Well, that's a rought estimate only. I'll back it up.

Ps3 sales Jan 6th to 12th may 2007: 2075K
X360 sales Jan 6th to 12th may 2007: 1882K

Ps3 sales jan 5th to may 10th 2008: 3823K
X3360 sales Jan 5th to May 10th 2008: 2861K

Increase in Ps3 sales: 45%
Increase in X360 sales: 27%


If the average stays it will be 210K for Ps3
If the average stays it will be 196K for X360.

As 360 is likely to drop in 2009, and Ps3 is likely to drop in 2010, the numbers are OK for the long run.

If you change the numbers to 210K Ps3 and 180K X360, I think people will think it is more fair.

Your analysis may favour Ps3 a small bit, but not a lot. Well done overall!

PS: Most of the complainers have never made as good a post as yours.

Rock on. By 2011 you mean by 1st January, correct?

What will Ps3 have to average to make 70M by then? A lot.

Total weeks: about 130.

Gap to 70M: about 60M

Sales pr week: 461K

Nintendo Wii, the fastest selling console ever, averaged 313K, about 66% of the sales you assume.

Your prediction is that the Ps3 will average about 50% higher than the Wii did last year.

ChartsViewer,

People already pointed at some flaws in your calculations. Another might be your amount of weeks per year. 48? In my world a year has 52 weeks.

 End of 2011. lol

Wow, you actually believe that?

Seriously?

 You do?

Um...

That is quite an unlikely scenario. The numbers would be difficult to achieve even if Sony put every financial effort into it. But since they want to actually make money from the Playstation brand then I would think not.

Really? I thought by was at the start.

Well, that adds 52 weeks. So 333K/week then. Around 10% higher than Wii's last year sales.