There has been much discussion of late about when the PS3 will catch the 360 in WW sales. As it is virtually certain this will happen at some point this gen given the rapid rise in PS3 sales in the last few months, many have started making predictions on when this will happen. The most optimistic Sony fans put this milestone at around December 2008 while the virulent 360 fanboys generally say it will never happen, or if it does, it will be so late in the gen it will be irrelevent. Both views have some merit, but let's look at the data about the PS3-360 gap and how it has changed over time.

On November 5, 2006, the last full week of sales before the PS3 launched, the 360 had worldwide sales of 5,181,654 consoles for an initial gap of 5,181,654 - 0 = 5,181,654 consoles. (That was some tough math there, you should be proud of me) However, the 360 sold very well in late 2006 and early 2007 and by March 18, 2007 (the last week before the PS3 launched in Europe), the gap was 9,127,570 - 2,058,642 = 7,068,928 consoles for a gap increase of 1,887,274 consoles. The addition of ~600,000 PS3 consoles in the two weeks following the Euro launch helped, but by July 1, 2007, the gap was still 10,353,245 - 3,728,551 = 6,624,694 consoles. Thus, in the three months following the subsidence of the Euro launch effect, the 360 outsold the PS3 by 200,000 consoles. (And we're talking about a normal April, May, and June, without Gran Turismo 5: Prologue, Grand Theft Auto IV, and Metal Gear Solid 4 to mix up sales data)

Although PS3 sales picked up slightly after the announcements of the price cut and the new model at E3 2007, these gains were more than offset by the juggernaut of Halo 3. The incredible sales effect of this game shows with the gap reaching an all-time high of 12,926,994 - 5,591,465 = 7,335,529 consoles on November 4, 2007.

This lenghty backround now leads us to the discussion the has been going on. As of last week, May 3, 2008 (the last available WW data as I am writing this), the gap is 18,725,205 - 12,377,878 = 6,347,327 consoles for a gap reduction of 7,335,539 - 6,347,327 = 988,212 consoles. At this rate it would take the PS3 38.54 months = 3.21 years = ~August 2011 to catch the 360.

This fact has led many to say, (with data to back up their opinion) that the PS3 will never catch the 360. However,this conclusion has a flaw if you look closer at what has happened to the gap since last November. On January 28, 2008, the gap was 16,656,872 - 9,646,825 = 7,010,047 consoles. This means that the PS3 closed the gap by 7,335,539 - 7,010,047 = 325,492 consoles over the 2007 holiday season. You may be saying "Ok, that's cool. So what?" However, this information also means that in the last three months, the PS3 has closed the gap by 7,010,047 - 6,347,327 = 662,720 consoles. At this rate it would take the PS3 28.73 months = 2.39 years = ~September 2010 to catch the 360.

Again, December 2010 is a long, long way off and the 360 fanboys out there are probably all breathing a sigh of relief. However, before you do that, look at the respective console's game lineups for the next few months. Although the 360 does have a lot of quality games coming out, the PS3 has quite a few more. Also, the launch of GTA IV, where the PS3 outsold by 362,832 - 270,176 = 92,656 consoles in one week, does not IMO bode well for the 360 considering that the 360 version of GTA IV is the better one and a PS3 console costs significantly more.

In conclusion, after looking at this data, I do not think it is likely that the PS3 will pass the 360 before March, 2009 and it will probably be quite a bit after that. However, it remains to be seen what kind of a long-term effect GTA will have on 360/PS3 sales and it is also unknown how many consoles MGS4, Resistance 2, and other PS3-exclusive games will move. Also, a huge holiday season by the PS3 versus the 360, which is much more than a remote possibility imo, would throw all predictions way off.

Bottom line: It's way too early to start guessing when the PS3 will pass the 360 in sales. Although it is almost a certainty that the PS3 will pass the 360 at some point this gen, guessing when is just that, a guess.

Edit: Just to clarify my statement about March, 2009: I'm not saying the PS3 will pass the 360 by then, all I'm saying with that is even given the most optimistic projections for PS3 sales that it could be reasonably expected to hit, it will not pass the 360 until then. If it does not match the aforementioned optimistic sales, it will pass it far later. IMO, it will not pass it until late 2009.

I think March 2009 is *way* too early to even consider talking about it.  As you mentioned, the gap is more than 6 million consoles.  The more likely case is that the PS3 closes the gap by approximately 3 million by march 2009, and probably another 3 million to close out 2009, if everything continues going Sony's way and MS doesn't pick up much momentum.

The thing is, this means the two consoles are basically tied for the rest of their useful lives.  The PS3 will be succeeded by the PS4 in probably 2012, and the Xbox 360 maybe supplanted that year, or even a year earlier.  This means that by the time this generation is really fought out, the PS3 will have only taken the lead, and a relatively small lead at that, toward the end of the generation.

When it is all said and done, it doesn't matter. 

Holidays 2009.

it;s immaterial really as this gen will be over by the time it gets close enough. also take into account when the 720 [for want of a better name] is released the 360 will become a bargain console like the ps2 with a brilliant library of games. the chances are the sales will stay really good for a couple of years into the 720. I really think ms are going to be the winners.

Great analysis! I think the most important conclusion that we can draw about the PS3-XBox360 "war" is this: Sales of the two consoles will remain close enough for the rest of the generation that all, or almost all, major 3rd party games will be released on both consoles. As a gamer, it seems like this is all that really matters.

Eventually this surge of PS3 sales that's been going for a few months WILL wind down and the console will see sales similar to what the 360 experiences now. Given the exception of particular periods where both consoles are expected to see increased sales, the PS3 will not continue to sell the way it is long enough to significantly cut the gap between the 360.

Like others have said though, if the PS3 ever does surpass the 360, it will not be this year, and I doubt it'd happen until very late next year if that. It wouldn't be able to gain a significant lead by the end of the generation anyway.

How many times will this argument be started!?

You say the 360 version is the better one, but that is disputable, and you should probably mention brand loyalty

Nice analysis.

Holidays 2009, unless LittleBigPlanet really, REALLY takes off. ala Wii Sports-take off.

I'm leaning towards early 2010. Not sure how this gen will end up exactly but I doubt the difference between 2nd and 3rd place will be more than 15-20 million worldwide.