| Retrasado said: In conclusion, after looking at this data, I do not think it is likely that the PS3 will pass the 360 before March, 2009 and it will probably be quite a bit after that. However, it remains to be seen what kind of a long-term effect GTA will have on 360/PS3 sales and it is also unknown how many consoles MGS4, Resistance 2, and other PS3-exclusive games will move. Also, a huge holiday season by the PS3 versus the 360, which is much more than a remote possibility imo, would throw all predictions way off. Bottom line: It's way too early to start guessing when the PS3 will pass the 360 in sales. Although it is almost a certainty that the PS3 will pass the 360 at some point this gen, guessing when is just that, a guess. |
I think March 2009 is *way* too early to even consider talking about it. As you mentioned, the gap is more than 6 million consoles. The more likely case is that the PS3 closes the gap by approximately 3 million by march 2009, and probably another 3 million to close out 2009, if everything continues going Sony's way and MS doesn't pick up much momentum.
The thing is, this means the two consoles are basically tied for the rest of their useful lives. The PS3 will be succeeded by the PS4 in probably 2012, and the Xbox 360 maybe supplanted that year, or even a year earlier. This means that by the time this generation is really fought out, the PS3 will have only taken the lead, and a relatively small lead at that, toward the end of the generation.
When it is all said and done, it doesn't matter.
