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Forums - Sales Discussion - M-Create 5/21-5/27

On a related note: Ouedan 2 is wayyy too high vs MC data. MC has it barely cracking the top 30, and it's in the top 10 here. Maybe Forza and Ouedan switched places accidently? Also, if Forza 2 really did do 17.5k or so, that would mean that after opening day of Shinbi's reported 5-7k, that it ended up selling 2.5-3.0x the opening day. With numbers like that, could we see some sort of hold for an actual WESTERN game?



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mrstickball said:
On a related note: Ouedan 2 is wayyy too high vs MC data. MC has it barely cracking the top 30, and it's in the top 10 here. Maybe Forza and Ouedan switched places accidently? Also, if Forza 2 really did do 17.5k or so, that would mean that after opening day of Shinbi's reported 5-7k, that it ended up selling 2.5-3.0x the opening day. With numbers like that, could we see some sort of hold for an actual WESTERN game?

After catching a bit of flak the past few days about Forza sales, it turns out you and I might be pretty close to right on this one, MrStickball.

So, after 17k or so of sales in three or so days, where do you expect it to finish LTD? I predicted 75 or 90k, can't remember without looking. I think you were somewhere in the same vicinity.

BTW, I really think this game is taking off in the US. Everyone I know bought this game. I'm curious to see how Europe is reacting to it.




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I think that within 1 month, Forza 2 will already out-sell Forza 1, atleast in the US. I'm still thinking it can do the following: US: 1,250,000 (first million seller of the year for the 360) Europe: 1,300,000 (2nd million seller on the 360 in Europe) - FM1 was one of the few games, and the only million seller to out-sell the US sales. Japan: 50,000 (conservatively). It could get more, or less. It really just depends. The game deserves atleast 90k, but might end up with less.



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rocketpig said:
mrstickball said:
On a related note: Ouedan 2 is wayyy too high vs MC data. MC has it barely cracking the top 30, and it's in the top 10 here. Maybe Forza and Ouedan switched places accidently? Also, if Forza 2 really did do 17.5k or so, that would mean that after opening day of Shinbi's reported 5-7k, that it ended up selling 2.5-3.0x the opening day. With numbers like that, could we see some sort of hold for an actual WESTERN game?

After catching a bit of flak the past few days about Forza sales, it turns out you and I might be pretty close to right on this one, MrStickball.

So, after 17k or so of sales in three or so days, where do you expect it to finish LTD? I predicted 75 or 90k, can't remember without looking. I think you were somewhere in the same vicinity.

BTW, I really think this game is taking off in the US. Everyone I know bought this game. I'm curious to see how Europe is reacting to it.


Lets not jump to conclusions too fast. We don't know for sure if those 5-7k where correct for the first day... it could have been 15k for the first day and 2k for the other two days?  Or how accurate do you actualy think those first day numbers are?

If it shows good numbers after the first full week, I could see it doing well. And if the trusty bell week is as slow as this week is, I could actualy see TB getting one of the top spots. If it manages to sell some systems with it, maybe some of the new users also feel like getting forza, you never know :p

Just pure speculation though, both could very well bomb completely also as far as I know.



We never know. I agree that the Shinobi numbers could be suspect, but at the same time: What if they're not? IMO, Shinobi numbers are pretty trustworthy, as I usually can predict most opening games within 10% of actuals using their data in the following way, with legs: Nintendo game, puzzle game, or some sort of "non game" typically gets 2.5x the reported opening. "Moderate" games include typical PS2 games that arent uber-games, lower-key RPGs, action games and such. Resident Evil 4 should fall here for Wii soon. These games are typically 1.8-2.3 the estimated First Days. "Poor" games are typically Xbox 360 games (Gears of War), RPGs (Monster Hunter, Final Fantasy XII, ect), and uber-games that typically either run out of units or are snatched up by otaku's the first day. These games struggle to get 1.5x the opening numbers. This list almost never fails. Although not perfect, can typically not only show the opening week, but typically how games will end up @. Example, Odin Sphere. It had an estimated 30k o/d. It only managed a 1.5x multiplier, then dropped around 65-70% the first week. very typical for a RPG. Next example: Super Paper Mario. It had around 60k first day, then managed a very strong 150k first week. Nearly a 3x multiplier. The next week, it managed somewhere around a 40% drop. Very strong. IMO, very typically, games with strong opening weeks vs. opening days usually suffer only a 40% to 50% drop the first week, and are very strong, or end up dropping mor (Ouedan 2) due to fewer total units being shipped to retailers. On the other hand, RPGs that sell incredibly well their first week (FFXII), and moreso their first day, struggle to barely get a 2x multiplier. FFXII sold 1.3m units o/w, but hasn't even hit 2.4m yet. Kingdom Hearts 2 Final Mix was very similar. It had a 100k o/d, 175k o/w, and dropped to 30k the next week. My whole point is this: IF Forza 2 sold along the lines of 17.5k, and Shinobi was indeed accurate (I assume 6.5 o/d if their estimates were right), it would put it around a 2.7x multiplier. Thats VERY strong for both the system it's on, and for a racing game. Should that be the case, then F2 could end up with around a 3x lifetime multiplier, and end up with 55k. However, it could be total crap, Shinobi was wrong, MC was wrong, and it drops to sub-5k next week, then we hear no more of it. It's just pure speculation. I can easily be wrong, but this is like the movie industry. Microsoft and Sony games (typically) are your blockbusters - Matrix Reloaded, Spiderman 3, ect. Nintendo games, and other uber-hits are more of like your Titanics, Lord of the Rings, and Pixar Studios movies. These movies open up either decent or moderately, then wind up with 4x to 5x or more multipliers. In the case of the former, 2.5x is considered a godsend. It is important that we develop formulas to be accurate on such games. Heidier and myself, along with Amiiam are some of the strongest predicters in the League. Why? We know how to extrapolate numbers with some degree of accuracy. I honestly don't think most of the top 5 to even top 10 are that far off on openers given the o/d data, as we've all developed our own formulas. I'm just sharing mine, and it usually lets me end up in the top 10. But this time, I used a typical multiplier for Forza 2, added some faith (and felt I might of been to high), and got 92% accuracy @ 12.500 units sold. Forza did MUCH more than that, so either my systems busted, there's an anomaly, or Forza will have legs. Next week will tell.



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you actually expect a 360 game to have legs?? Whatever was sold this week should be about half of the lifetime sales. I predict 30-40k.



currently playing: Skyward Sword, Mario Sunshine, Xenoblade Chronicles X

rocketpig said:
mrstickball said:
On a related note: Ouedan 2 is wayyy too high vs MC data. MC has it barely cracking the top 30, and it's in the top 10 here. Maybe Forza and Ouedan switched places accidently? Also, if Forza 2 really did do 17.5k or so, that would mean that after opening day of Shinbi's reported 5-7k, that it ended up selling 2.5-3.0x the opening day. With numbers like that, could we see some sort of hold for an actual WESTERN game?

After catching a bit of flak the past few days about Forza sales, it turns out you and I might be pretty close to right on this one, MrStickball.

So, after 17k or so of sales in three or so days, where do you expect it to finish LTD? I predicted 75 or 90k, can't remember without looking. I think you were somewhere in the same vicinity.

BTW, I really think this game is taking off in the US. Everyone I know bought this game. I'm curious to see how Europe is reacting to it.


How about that prediction of 360 sales rising to 10k?



currently playing: Skyward Sword, Mario Sunshine, Xenoblade Chronicles X

John, actually there have been 360 games to have legs, both in the US and Japan. How many games would you like me to point out to you? I do not believe I ever predicted Forza 2 selling 10k h/w. I did say 5-7k was likely, which obviously it didn't happen. However, I was also predicting 50k units of software, and had Forza 2 sold that much, the h/w levels would of backed it up. 360 sales did have a noticable increase for having such low sales.



Back from the dead, I'm afraid.

it wasn't you, sorry if you misunderstood that, it was rocketpig. No, 360 games do not have legs in Japan unless you are referring to games that Japanese people actually want like DOA and Blue Dragon. We are talking about Japan so i don't need any examples from America. You find me an example of a game that had legs that sold around 10-20k in the first week and i'll listen.



currently playing: Skyward Sword, Mario Sunshine, Xenoblade Chronicles X

i've been looking and i can't find any western style games that have legs on 360 in Japan, in fact most of them sold somewhere between 1/2 to 2/3 of their LTD in the first week.



currently playing: Skyward Sword, Mario Sunshine, Xenoblade Chronicles X