We never know. I agree that the Shinobi numbers could be suspect, but at the same time: What if they're not? IMO, Shinobi numbers are pretty trustworthy, as I usually can predict most opening games within 10% of actuals using their data in the following way, with legs: Nintendo game, puzzle game, or some sort of "non game" typically gets 2.5x the reported opening. "Moderate" games include typical PS2 games that arent uber-games, lower-key RPGs, action games and such. Resident Evil 4 should fall here for Wii soon. These games are typically 1.8-2.3 the estimated First Days. "Poor" games are typically Xbox 360 games (Gears of War), RPGs (Monster Hunter, Final Fantasy XII, ect), and uber-games that typically either run out of units or are snatched up by otaku's the first day. These games struggle to get 1.5x the opening numbers. This list almost never fails. Although not perfect, can typically not only show the opening week, but typically how games will end up @. Example, Odin Sphere. It had an estimated 30k o/d. It only managed a 1.5x multiplier, then dropped around 65-70% the first week. very typical for a RPG. Next example: Super Paper Mario. It had around 60k first day, then managed a very strong 150k first week. Nearly a 3x multiplier. The next week, it managed somewhere around a 40% drop. Very strong. IMO, very typically, games with strong opening weeks vs. opening days usually suffer only a 40% to 50% drop the first week, and are very strong, or end up dropping mor (Ouedan 2) due to fewer total units being shipped to retailers. On the other hand, RPGs that sell incredibly well their first week (FFXII), and moreso their first day, struggle to barely get a 2x multiplier. FFXII sold 1.3m units o/w, but hasn't even hit 2.4m yet. Kingdom Hearts 2 Final Mix was very similar. It had a 100k o/d, 175k o/w, and dropped to 30k the next week. My whole point is this: IF Forza 2 sold along the lines of 17.5k, and Shinobi was indeed accurate (I assume 6.5 o/d if their estimates were right), it would put it around a 2.7x multiplier. Thats VERY strong for both the system it's on, and for a racing game. Should that be the case, then F2 could end up with around a 3x lifetime multiplier, and end up with 55k. However, it could be total crap, Shinobi was wrong, MC was wrong, and it drops to sub-5k next week, then we hear no more of it. It's just pure speculation. I can easily be wrong, but this is like the movie industry. Microsoft and Sony games (typically) are your blockbusters - Matrix Reloaded, Spiderman 3, ect. Nintendo games, and other uber-hits are more of like your Titanics, Lord of the Rings, and Pixar Studios movies. These movies open up either decent or moderately, then wind up with 4x to 5x or more multipliers. In the case of the former, 2.5x is considered a godsend. It is important that we develop formulas to be accurate on such games. Heidier and myself, along with Amiiam are some of the strongest predicters in the League. Why? We know how to extrapolate numbers with some degree of accuracy. I honestly don't think most of the top 5 to even top 10 are that far off on openers given the o/d data, as we've all developed our own formulas. I'm just sharing mine, and it usually lets me end up in the top 10. But this time, I used a typical multiplier for Forza 2, added some faith (and felt I might of been to high), and got 92% accuracy @ 12.500 units sold. Forza did MUCH more than that, so either my systems busted, there's an anomaly, or Forza will have legs. Next week will tell.
Back from the dead, I'm afraid.
