I'm expecting around 9 million for each console, 360 version starting faster of course, (maybe double in USA, and about the same as each other in Europe) but the PS3 version will catch up later and probably pass it, but not significantly (1 mil ish)

Off Topic but, Happy VGC birthday TWRoO!! xD party avatar and all.

Just look at last years sale in Japan at this time. It was a 2 week event, with the second week being larger. If this year follows last years pattern expect this week to be 30% higher than last week, then next week to be another 15-20% higher than that.

i believe the wii will outsell the ps3 and 360 combined

@Bigjon
That is because a 1 week holiday plus the weekends at either end will always span 2 weeks

@trestres, thanks... it's DMeisterJ's too.

I think San Andreas was as popular as GTA is ever going to get, which is Wii level popular.

The question is, how many of those 20 million people will be willing to spend 460 dollars to play GTAIV.

I'm guessing first week, about 300,000 extra consoles sold, to be split between PS3 and 360. Just my official estimate.

Wii will probably do another 400,000 week, but who can ever tell about the Wii.

Don't mean to bash anyone's opinion but this is kinda silly. Wii sold over 425,000 last week and people seriously expect it will be outsold by 360 or PS3 when MK Wii comes out in US and Wii Fit in Europe? There is no chance whatsoever that could happen unless there is a severe shortage of Wii stock. But there is no way Nintendo would be stupid enough not to make sure there is abundancy stock for that week to coincide with these launches.

It would be a different matter if GTA4 was coming out on just one console. But both PS3 and 360 have to share the boost the game will give. And they are both starting from so far behind that the shared boost is just not going to be enough since Wii is going to be getting its own boost.

But who knows, maybe Leo J is right. Maybe GTA4 has something built into it that emits radiation which brain washes people so that when they would previously have thought Wii was something they'd want to get they would suddenly see it as a piece of shit.

Not many people play the PSP GTA games trust me, but many people not think play GTAIV because the console cost a lot of money, then GTAIV will sell less than GTA:SA.

Liberty City Stories sold almost 5 million, on the king of bad attach rate no less. How can you say that? Oh, and I couldn't really understand what you were saying, sorry, but what do you mean "not think play?"

And when the preorders for the game look to be nearly double the launch of San Andreas (what was it, 2.4 million for the 360 and 1.6 million for the PS3?) then I'd say it will pass 20 million easily.

I'm not 100 percent convinced it will pass San Andreas all that easily, either, to be honest.

20 million would be a 66 percent attach rate to current gen consoles. That's a hell of a feat, but it could certainly do it.

I dunno how much better it can do that 66 percent though. 

The pre-order thing is decisive evidence, however most poeple who own consoles now could still be considered hardcore early adopters who will certainly pre-order right away.

In other words, the casuals that bought SA, probably won't buy a PS3 or 360 to play the game if they don't already have one.

Who knows though. I see it reaching 15 million at least.