I think there will almost certainly be a Switch 2 Lite or Switch 2 TV most likely in the second half of 2027. And perhaps the other one in 2029. Nintendo has a tendency to release new variants of their hardware on year 2 and 4 for their handheld line, and their hybrid line has adopted this from the handheld side.

GB Pocket 1996, GBC 1998
GBA 2001, GBASP 2003, GB Micro 2005
DS 2004, DS Lite 2006, DSi 2008
3DS 2011, 3DS XL 2012, 2DS 2013, New 3DS 2014 (this is the exception)
Switch 1 2017, Switch 2 2019, Switch OLED 2021
Switch 2 2025...

They also did budget revisions of their home consoles that changed some elements, but they are generally less regular. Wii 2006 (Revolution 001), had the family edition in 2011 (Revolution 101) and the Wii Mini in 2013 (Revolution 201).

Past is meaningless, node shrinks didn't make hardware more expensive and AI competing for every production line, RAM component, memory component etc. didn't exist.

What happened with the Switch Lite or previous hardware is irrelevant to today. The PS5 and XBox Series X should be getting price drops at this point not price increases, this era is completely different. 

It's entirely probable that Samsung will charge Nintendo more for a Switch 2 SoC die shrink this time around, assuming Nintendo can even secure that production capacity, which would make the Lite model quite probably more expensive. Who is supposed to be the market for that product? 

I rather a docked only Switch 2 with no screen. Same reason I wanted a Switch 1 version of this and my fear came true. Once that battery cannot hold a charge it will not power on to work even docked. Modern USB devices are fucking trash for this. My PSP I can play with no battery in it when plugged in. Vita,3DS and forward you are just fucked.

Looks like this might be the screen Nintendo is using for a revision.

7.9", 1080p, LCD, made by sharp. Probably not for a lite though. Could be an improvement over the current screen which has poor pixel response time.

https://nintendoeverything.com/evidence-points-to-potential-new-lcd-screen-for-nintendo-switch-2/

In theory they can go with 6" screen $350 Switch 2 Lite, with profit. Whether they'll actually do it at that price is another question.

I half expect them to release a Switch 2 Lite at the same time as the new main line Pokémon games drop next year.

Releasing a TV only option I feel have been a no brainer for the majority of the time Switch have been a thing. I feel like that will cement it as a hybrid system line. A unit with both handheld and docked play options, a unit with only handheld option and a unit with only "docked" option, playing the same games. I feel like one of the largest markets for such a system is people who already have the Lite but only the Lite.
I guess that there is some downside I do not see.

If this is to happen it cannot be with less RAM. Reduced resolution to 720p, and 60Hz panel only - alongside reduced internal storage to 128GB or 64GB is much more realistic for Nintendo.

Maybe I don’t understand costs of production… but I feel like that price tag would likely not even be enough to cover the cost for RAM and internal storage, especially not in late-2027/2028. Am I wrong on this?

The lack of a Switch TV feels so much like money left on the table. But I’m not going to say I have Nintendo’s analytics or market strategy, only that it seems weird as a consumer. It could be some other reason, like deals with other companies… it might be that Nintendo has some kind of deal with a component manufacturer that says they get stuff cheaper as long as all devices have a screen.

Current estimates for RAM+storage for Switch 2 are around $80-100...which makes sense, since off the shelf you can buy similar thing for PC for ~$130. That might go up though, so I was talking about pricing in current memory climate.

So, currently, yeah, they are more than able to make $350 Switch 2 Lite, which is in line with Switch to Switch Lite pricing. I believe that would be sensible thing for them to do, even if they "only" break even or loose a bit money on it. Of course, if memory costs keep on rising, anything goes.