Sales are already declining at a sharp rate in America and Japan - The latter of which doesn't give a damn about GTA. And these high RAM prices and tariffs don't seem to be going anywhere any time soon. Don't be surprised of Sony raises the PS5's prices AGAIN. And that's going to cause an even sharper decline because the PS5 right now is already above the average consumer's price range.

The people who usually buy consoles in Years 5-6-7 and onwards are either dedicated fans buying a mid-gen refresh or hardware upgrade like the PS5 Pro, or the late adopters waiting for the the base model to come down in price to the point where they can afford it. The latter has not happened and has even gotten MORE expensive, while the former is too expensive even for some of the dedicated fans. That's why it's starting to fall behind even the PS4 Pro sales, launches aligned.

As it is now, the PS5 is tracking roughly 2m units behind the PS4 and the current landscape and outlook of the market does not work in the PS5's favor. 
As far as moving the needle for hardware sales, GTA VI isn't just the biggest thing the PS5 has to look forward to, it's the ONLY thing the PS5 has to look forward to!
But the thing people seem to forget or gloss over with GTA VI is - It's multiplatform. It'll also release on Xbox Series X/S, and a PC version is all but guaranteed at this point. And when that drops, that's going to cut into long-term hardware sales in addition to the Xbox Series X/S version being a thing. 

Combine that with Sony putting more of their own 1st party titles on PC and other platforms (MLB The Show being on Xbox and Nintendo now), and there's less and less reason to buy a PS5 (Digital, Disc, and Pro) in 2026-27 at $500, $550, and $750 than there was to buy a PS4 (Slim and Pro) in 2019-2020 at $300 and $400.

If Sony can keep the prices as they are and have similar deals to last year's, PS5 will beat PS4's lifetime sales within two years. PS4 had a really weak supply constrained 2020, whereas a readily available PS5 in 2027 should get a huge boost from GTA6. There's no way PS5 won't outsell the PS4 even if it gets another price hike.

The only thing that could stop PS5 from outselling the PS4 is if Sony chooses to limit PS5 production too early because they don't want to sell too many consoles at a significant loss. We just don't know how much these consoles will cost to manufacture in the next two years, or the nature and period of Sony's contracts with chip makers.

Not even close

If PS6 is delayed to 2030, then I think it would at least get to 145m.

2030 is an extra 3 years, that's a lot of potential sales.

You know PS5 is only 1.94m behind PS4, and closed the gap by 0.6m in November? Once December is added PS5 2025 may beat PS4 2018. If PS6 is delayed PS5 will crush the PS4 lol.

PS5 Vs. PS4 Worldwide (November 2025):

Gap change in latest month: 607,105 - PS5

Gap change over last 12 months: 403,027 - PS4

Total Lead: 1,944,318 - PS4

PlayStation 5 Total Sales: 86,124,771

OlayStation 4 Total Sales: 88,069,089

The only way I see this happening is if, on top of there being no PS6 for many more years, the following conditions are also met:

- Xbox completely disappears from the market.
- Switch 2 becomes a total failure.
- PC prices skyrocket exponentially.
- By some miracle, exclusives return to the PS5.

And most importantly:

- Sony releases a PS5-family portable that can run the full PS5 library at a reasonable price.
- They ship an extra 20 million consoles and count them as sold.

This is insane hyperbole lol. It's neck and neck with the PS4 at the moment so will probably hit 115m even if it's replaced in 2027.

3 additional years, every other platform failing and a PS5 Portable = only an additional 25m legit sales? And then the fake 20m ontop? lmao.

It would need a PS5 Slim, with a massive redesign and size reduction, and somehow be cheap(which seems impossible)

Not unless it drops to $199 or something. Which it won’t.

Ok, to be fair, $299 with discounts to $249 would be an attractive price even for the more casual audience. That can only potentially happen after the RAM crisis is over though, and who knows when that will be.

Nah, because the ps5 will likely go up in price. And the S2 is a great alternative, especially with all the 3rd party support it is getting. Steam also continues to grow. The competition is too fierce to break the ps2 record.