The full data for 2025 isn't out yet but it looks like it'll have sold around 16m in its first 7 months compared to the Switch 1 selling 13.1m in its first 10 so an extremely strong start though there are signs that it's starting to slow down after its record shattering launch with it looking like it had a worse first holiday season compared to the Switch 1 though big differences compared to 2017 are the lack of a massive exclusive like Mario Odyssey for the last stretch of the year and the console market being being in a rough state in the US currently.

The most important thing will be if its first holiday is an outlier and it does fantastic throughout this year or if it is really is starting to slow down in a significant way and will have a significantly more frontloaded sales curve due a lot of people getting theirs quicker than usual due to them knowing that it probably won't be getting a price cut ever and instead will get more expensive over time if anything so they may as well do it as soon as they can.

Due to that factor I personally think it has notably slowed down now and could slow down more after a likely price increase in the coming months though I still expect it to outsell the Switch 1's 2018, just not by that much so like 17-18m compared to 16.3m. The Switch 2's line-up this year should be better than the Switch 1's 2018 so even though it probably won't be selling extremely well any more that should help keep sales momentum up enough to still have a great year. 

I feel like it's almost impossible to extrapolate this yet as these days Nintendo keeps their cards very close to their chest, so we have no idea what games will be coming to the system beyond Spring.

It's reasonable to expect the line-up to be better than 2018 I'd say though you're right there's still a lot of uncertainty but for me that makes the speculation more fun. My expectation has things like a price increase and gen 10 Pokemon being a holiday title baked in since both seem likely to happen.

Very very difficult to guess without knowing if a price increase is coming, and if any big unannounced games are this year.

After an insane launch it's slowed down a bit in the holidays to be reportedly slower than Switch 1. Will be interesting to see how Jan stacks up to Switch Jan 2018 and if it was just a holiday blip and will start outselling SW1 again.

Could really be anywhere from 15-20m at this point imo.

I'm not convinced Pokémon will make it. The same leaked schedule that put Pokémon Wind/Waves as 2026 also had Arceus as 2024, so I think it's likely it will also have been delayed. Ofc if it did launch it'd greatly help this year.

Hard to predict, if Nintendo are forced to make a price increase in all major markets this year due to AI driven component cost increase, that would dramatically lower its sales potential this year.

We also don't know if Nintendo will have any big game besides Pokemon gen 10 this year.

Here in Europe sales don't look great compared to US and Japan. Remember Europe is 750m people, well over twice that of the USA and over 6x as many people as Japan. French numbers look awful. I expect the Switch 2 sales to reduce quite badly when they introduce their necessary price increases but that won't be just the Switch 2 it will effect all electronic devices like tablets, PCs, playstation, xbox, smartphones too I expect although not seen that mentioned anywhere for some reason. Analysts know Nintendo are in for a rough time which is why their share value has dropped. Xbox and Playstation have existing userbases already and Nintendo has too with the Switch 1 so I expect a lot more focus to go back on Switch 1, maybe get a few more Switch 1 games that we weren't expecting. If a little more focus and marketing goes back onto Switch 1 because its their only console capable of being sold at a mass market price then that will reduce Switch 2 sales.

That comparison don't make much sense, true, Europe has a much bigger population than Japan. But historically Nintendo consoles have many times sold comparable in Japan compared to Europe, that happened for the 3DS and Switch 1 for example. Nintendo is much more popular in Japan, and faces less competition from other players which means on a population size basis, Nintendo sales in Japan will always crush its sales in Europe.

Based on history, Switch 2 lifetime sales in Japan should be comparable to its lifetime sales in Europe. Switch 2 sales in Japan could even surpass the European sales like happened for the 3DS. You also don't take into account that like 90 % of Nintendo's European sales come from UK, Germany, France, Spain, Italy, ie bigger western countries, they sell almost nothing in eastern Europe.

PC gaming and PS is bigger than Nintendo in Europe, it would be delusional to think that doesn't lower sales potential for Nintendo consoles there, that is just a fact.

I'd actually prefer it gets delayed into 2027 so it gets as much development time as possible to help make it the leap forward the series needs. I just doubt Game Freak will be given more time since they've already been given longer than usual to make this one.

I chose the 18-19 million option, it should manage more in a full year, but it looks to have been very front-loaded. The November and December sales were much lower than I expected, and 2026 could be a painful year for most hardware due to price increases and tariffs all over the place. I don't think any machine has a shot at selling 20 million or more this year, simply due to market conditions.