(i) There are interviews dating back as far back as 2021 suggesting that pre-development for the next 3D Mario may have already been in progress. [Source.] And around the same time, it had been rumored that Nintendo divided their EDP 8 team into two studios: One for DK, one for 3D Mario. [Source.] Indeed, if you look at the headcount involved in DKBananza (via the ending credits), you’ll find that it is significantly less than that of SMOdyssey.

(ii) Mario Maker 1+2 was developed under the same studio responsible for Mario Bros Wonder. This is also the same studio responsible for NSMBDS, NSMBWii, NSMBWiiU, and NSMBUDeluxe. Seeing how successful Mario Wonder has proven 2D Mario to be, and how underwhelmingly Mario Maker 2 performed by comparison, it is hard to say whether Nintendo would be fully interested in devoting 2D Mario Team resources to a Mario Maker 3 IMO. In any case: Could three years be enough time? Well… maybe. If Nintendo had divided 2D Mario team in a similar manner to EDP 8, then I could see it… but the 2D Mario Team had already been divided: One for Pikmin, one for Mario Wonder. So, unless we’re 5-7y away from the next mainline Pikmin game (which I can say quite assuredly we are not, seeing how hard Nintendo has been pushing Pikmin as a brand) or the next 2D Mario, I don’t believe another Mario Maker is currently in development. However, you never know with Nintendo. Anything is possible.

2D Mario can be developed in 3 years, it's not a game that take much time to create. Mario Maker and Mario Wonder appeals to different demographs, they are not the same games at all. But more important, 2D Mario (unlike Mario Maker) has very high casual market appeal 

Rule of thumb is if the game has a dedicated core fandom you want quicker releases (ideally 2 to 3 years max) to capitalize the fandom. I think Nintendo follows this philosophy to few IPs like Pokemon, Fire Emblem and Splatoon 

However if your game has high casual appeal I.e. is a game that keep selling for years when your userbase growths, it's better to give some time between releases. This is the case for 2D Mario. Nintendo can keep selling a new 2D Mario for 5 to 6 years before releasing a new one. Releasing new 2D Mario quickly means a new game could potentially divert sales from an old entry to a newer entry 

I’m confident 2026 will deliver. Obviously, Nintendo is playing the slow and steady game with Switch 2, versus Switch 1 which came out of the gate swinging like a platform possessed, but I can’t imagine they’re going to let Yoshi, Fire Emblem, and Splatoon Raiders carry the year. I expect October-December will see two big tentpole games that haven’t yet been announced.

If Nintendo tries to scrape by with a few “AA” productions during the holiday season, I think it will be a big mistake.

That’s a good point actually, regarding the 2-3y release schedule rule. Maybe Nintendo will do something. It’d be crazy if we got both a Mario Maker and 3D Mario this year lol, both definitely seem to be coming in the near future.

Pokémon releasing in 2027 just made 2026 significantly more exciting: What could Nintendo have planned for the holiday of GTAVI? How good will this new Pokémon game be?

Alright, my flag is planted: 3D Mario is coming this winter. It’s no longer an “if” but “when”.

That said: Perhaps a Mar10 Day reveal? Maybe Nintendo hosts a General Direct the week of the Mario Movie to boost Mario discussion and thereby drive ticket sales? Would Nintendo be open to a post-credit scene featuring a tease? Only time will tell.

I have access to a 4090 and have played a lot of Cyberpunk and FF on the S2 instead. Not saying it's better, but at this point the S2 has proved to be phenomenal in what it can achieve in such a small, and QUIET (heck, I can't believe how silence this little thing is), form.