firebush03 said:
(i) There are interviews dating back as far back as 2021 suggesting that pre-development for the next 3D Mario may have already been in progress. [Source.] And around the same time, it had been rumored that Nintendo divided their EDP 8 team into two studios: One for DK, one for 3D Mario. [Source.] Indeed, if you look at the headcount involved in DKBananza (via the ending credits), you’ll find that it is significantly less than that of SMOdyssey. (ii) Mario Maker 1+2 was developed under the same studio responsible for Mario Bros Wonder. This is also the same studio responsible for NSMBDS, NSMBWii, NSMBWiiU, and NSMBUDeluxe. Seeing how successful Mario Wonder has proven 2D Mario to be, and how underwhelmingly Mario Maker 2 performed by comparison, it is hard to say whether Nintendo would be fully interested in devoting 2D Mario Team resources to a Mario Maker 3 IMO. In any case: Could three years be enough time? Well… maybe. If Nintendo had divided 2D Mario team in a similar manner to EDP 8, then I could see it… but the 2D Mario Team had already been divided: One for Pikmin, one for Mario Wonder. So, unless we’re 5-7y away from the next mainline Pikmin game (which I can say quite assuredly we are not, seeing how hard Nintendo has been pushing Pikmin as a brand) or the next 2D Mario, I don’t believe another Mario Maker is currently in development. However, you never know with Nintendo. Anything is possible. |
2D Mario can be developed in 3 years, it's not a game that take much time to create. Mario Maker and Mario Wonder appeals to different demographs, they are not the same games at all. But more important, 2D Mario (unlike Mario Maker) has very high casual market appeal
Rule of thumb is if the game has a dedicated core fandom you want quicker releases (ideally 2 to 3 years max) to capitalize the fandom. I think Nintendo follows this philosophy to few IPs like Pokemon, Fire Emblem and Splatoon
However if your game has high casual appeal I.e. is a game that keep selling for years when your userbase growths, it's better to give some time between releases. This is the case for 2D Mario. Nintendo can keep selling a new 2D Mario for 5 to 6 years before releasing a new one. Releasing new 2D Mario quickly means a new game could potentially divert sales from an old entry to a newer entry
