I feel like it'll be 2.3 million, a slight drop ~10%. I feel like there will start to be a steeper drop starting next year, but it'll ride this holiday pretty well.

I think the decline will be dependant on what is shown for GTA 6, as in when it is shown, and whether or not Sony will adjust the price.  If they don't lower the price again until later next year, we should expect to see declines through the first half of 2026.

I wasn't very specific, I was talking about a general decline at the beginning of next year. I suspect the first two quarters will drop ~15-25% in the States. Since GTA6 doesn't release until November of 2026 it will have relatively little impact.

I also generally think GTA6 is being hyped up a little bit too much as a console seller. I know quite a few people who have GTA5, but they only have it for GTA Online. Granted this grouping of people weren't old enough to engage with GTA5 when it came out (Hell, I was only 9!) and isn't a indicative sample of the 200+ million people that own GTA5. It will definitely sell very well, but I feel like peoples expectations are a little too high on how well it will sell consoles.

Hell, GTA5 didn't really boost PS360 sales all that much. VGChartz estimates 16 million copies were sold for the PS360 in week one, yet console sales only increased by an aggregate of 250,000 or so, it did elevate the basline by 1.5x, though I will admit this is a bit muddled due to holiday season approaching and the PS4/Xbox One launching soon, though GTAV was unavailable for those consoles. GTAV just didn't move many consoles for how much the game itself sold, and I expect GTA6 to be the same. Part of this is definitely due to its late release in the consoles life span with ~150 million playerbase which is larger than ~115 million currently, though a year from now that number will likely be ~130-135 million lowering the gap substantially.

3 million is going to be tough for a 5-year-old console. I voted the 2.2-2.6 million range, and I'll meet in the middle at 2.4 million.

November- 1.1 million
December-1.3 million
Total- 2.4 million