Very possibly heading to be the worst reviewed Metroid game. Not the high 70s is a “bad” meta, but it is somewhat equivalent to mainline Zelda or Mario getting that score. People would be extremely underwhelmed because of the pedigree. I think Nintendo’s weird treatment of this makes total sense now too, what with the lack of a marketing focus in their directs and the weird release date right after Black Friday rather than try to capitalize on the sales. I think they obviously lost a lot of faith in this game’s commercial potential once they saw where it looked headed. 

I just think this game had a very troubled dev and I’m not totally convinced Retro really wanted to make it either. I think it was far more a case of Nintendo asking them to do it after the original MP4 fell through. Very curious to see what Retro looks like as a developer these days now that they’re freed from this game, considering they went over a decade with nothing.

The worrisome part about this though is if it fails commercially on top of the reception, the odds of us getting another new 3D Metroid, maybe ever, are far from a sure thing. We’re insanely lucky Dread turned out to be an overwhelming win for the franchise, or this could’ve killed the whole franchise. 

Fire!

I agree up until the part about “Metroid is doomed if this games flops!”. Nintendo has a very consistent history not of dropping franchises with entries which underperform, but of reassessing the tried formulas and studying ways in which they can breath new life into them. To list just a few examples of this:

(i) The Legend of Zelda: Skyward Sword -> Breath of the Wild,

(ii) Mario Party 9/10 -> SMParty/MPSuperstars/SMParty:Jamboree,

(iii) PM:Sticker Star/Color Splash -> PM:TOK/TTYDRemake,

(iv) DKCReturns/TF -> DKBananza,

(v) NewSMB -> SMBWonder,

(vi) SF64 -> SFAdventure -> SFAssault -> SFZero,

(vii) Kirby64 -> Kirby:RtDL && Kirby:SA -> Kirby:atFL

And so on. If F-Zero 99, Famicon Detective Club, Kirby Air Riders, Advanced Wars 1+2 Remake, etc., aren’t evidence enough that Nintendo isn’t fully focused on only the heaviest of heavy-hitters, then I don’t know what is. Metroid has been a working project at Nintendo since the 80s: it is 100% here to stay. And chances are, following the critical reception of MP4:Beyond and Nintendo’s apparent shame of this title, I could see the next 3D Metroid being a veeeery big step forward for the franchise. Something on par with DKBananza or KirbyATFL for their respective franchises.

Game only got an 8 at IGN, and the guy who gave it that 8 said there were parts in the game, such as the motorcycle stuff, that were like a 5... which validates my views on the stupid-as-hell concept of putting Samus on a hog. Not that I needed validation, there are games that I will admit are great but that I just don't like, but there it is.

Nintendo should have just made a tight, Prime-focused game. There was no need to try and shoehorn Metroid into the open-world fad, or modernize it beyond graphics and AI. Their IPs live in a timeless bubble that everyone loves. Metroid should have been no different.

The problem is all those franchises you listed have historically been much more successful than Metroid. There’s a reason it’s been 20 years between 3D Metroid games (and Dread was a 10+ year gap between any new entry). This franchise always kind of hangs by a thread as to whether or not Nintendo will deem it worthwhile to do another one. In the past it’s mostly been saved by great reception among the public who do play them to the games. But without that this time, it could be a different story. We will absolutely get a Dread follow up from Mercury Steam though, so not like the whole franchise is dead now either way.  

I now point to more niche examples: Pikmin, Endless Ocean, Famicon Detective Club, F-Zero 99, Fire Emblem, Advanced Wars, Mario v Donkey Kong, Kirby Air Riders, etc.

Even if Metroid Prime 4 were an absolute disaster that killed the Prime series, Dread sold and reviewed well enough for the series to continue.

Maybe I'm just being too optimistic, but I still don't think Metroid Prime 4 is in trouble. Despite the rating being lower than the original trilogy, it still has an 81 average on Metacritic so far, which is a good rating. I look forward to playing this game as soon as I can. I'm currently playing Super Mario Galaxy 2.

I personally expect it to sell MP2 numbers (combined) with the reception, somewhat poor marketing, and missing Black Friday rush. So 1-1.5mil.

Ironically the reasons why it has mixed scores are probably reasons why it might sell better. The non-enthusiast gamer barely follows review aggregation sites. There is a good point to be made that Metroid games were pretty opaque for gamers who are used to playing mostly cinematic titles. I have optimism as well that maybe the handholding will make it more appealing, rather than less. 

It also has the benefit of being an early entry in a somewhat slim Switch 2 first party library and of course it is on two very successful platforms rather than one, basically amplifying the effect Twilight Princess and BOTW got by being cross-generation (but with TP and BOTW being on relatively failed systems in the older generation.)