Around 10-15 M for the Switch 1 version, and maybe the same for the Switch 2 Version (if the game have legs for this).

I mean, Scarlet and Violet with all their problems sold over 27 million, the Pokémon crowd tends to show up no matter what.

This is true, I am expecting it to perform well but Scarlet and Violet had the benefit of being a whole new generation and looking adventurous. 

I'm the same exact sir, Pokemon is losing its soul lately

It'll sell less than Scarlet/Violet since it's a subseries rather than a new gen, yeah.

Legends Arceus sold around 15m, I'd expect similar from this personally, maybe with a moderate boost from arriving in the first year of a new console.

tbf if the game underperforms, all this’ll tell GF is that they need to “play it safer” and not veer too far from the traditional turn-based combat of mainline games. They have revamped much of the combat in Z-A, met mostly with mixed feedback from early impressions. Sounds like the game also has a refreshing degree of difficulty, so all-in-all, it’s a mixed bag.

I'm thinking over 20m, but that may be too optimistic. I figure that it is on two systems. Most Pokemon fans will buy it on Switch 1, while Switch 2 owners are going to want a holiday game to play. Mario Odyssey seemed to benefit a lot from being the holiday title for the first year for Switch, and I think this Pokemon will get a similar benefit.

I imagine it'll sell better than Arceus due to its way better release timing. That released just two months after BDSP and SV came out later the same year as Arceus so it was weirdly sandwiched between those two and most or at least a lot of Pokemon fans aren't gonna buy three Pokemon games in a year span. Gen 10 should release next year but Z-A will still get a holiday season entirely to itself and will benefit from the Switch 1's insanely big install base and Switch 2 owners wanting to get a big Nintendo game for the holidays. It's also the first big Pokemon game in three years so there should be some pent up demand and it looks like it won't be a technical disaster like SV was with it even running at 60fps on the Switch 2 so the significant improvement there should help too.

15-17.5 million seems about right. SwSh sold about 26 million and the next game Arceus sold almost 15 million. So it’s probably a safe bet to say that after SV sold around 27 million, a similar situation will happen with ZA, even if there’ll be a bundle with the Switch 2

https://x.com/Chris_Dring/status/1979992388580913472

Thank God people have eyes. 41% lower than Archeus in physical in the UK. S2 is 51% of launch sales.

It just doesn't look as appealing. Its still likely to benefit as the main "holiday" title so it may have better legs in that market.