For Xbox and Playstation, new game sales are dominated by the next gen version even close to launch of that new system. Will presumably be the same here.

I think the difference is that Pokemon has a big casual audience, especially in Japan (Where Pokemon is most popular).

I would assume S1 due to massively larger player base

True, but I'm not saying it'll sell poorly, I just feel like it won't be a must-have game on Switch2, where the early buyers are presumably looking for next-gen games, and a boring looking cross gen game (and it very much looks like a Switch1 game with just a cleaner coat put on) IMO feels like it'll sell more to the massive Switch user base than the next gen users.

I'd be very disappointed if I was looking to buy a next-gen Pokemon game and this was it haha. Legends Arceus was a small step in the right direction, and S/V seems like conceptually it was a good step in the right direction and was just mired by being a technical disaster. Z-A feels like a major step backward into boredom.

The counter point of course is that there won't be a lot to play on Switch2 yet so people might simply be desperate for a new major game on the system.

Pokemon is a mega popular IP, so brand recognition makes it a perfect choice to tie a new Pokemon game to a new console, it makes both more attractive for consumers.

I guess most of the players would be on the younger side. Usually younger gamers are not early adopters (or their parents in this case)

For the same reason in reverse I think Metroid Prime4 will be mostly bought on Switch2.

Based off the fanbase, Switch 1. I think Switch 2 early adopters have are a bit more discerning then will be more selective with what games they get on the system this autumn. It will obviously do great on Switch 2 but I think the attention will also be evenly split between games like Metroid 4, FFVII R etc

It's not really my thing either, but the Pokémon crowd seems pretty keen for it, and after years of series entries running poorly, being able to play at a decent framerate on Switch 2 could be a significant draw for fans.

The Nintendo fanbase typically doesn't care about graphics as much as enthusiasts like us or the PS/Xbox audience.

You guys are really just not understanding Pokemon as an ip. This ip isnt about graphics or frames or performance or glitches or whatever else. This ip is about obtaining these creatures and training them. Pokemon Champions is a pokemon battling game that finally allows the gimmicks of previous generations all in one game. Previously the gimmicks were stuck in their respective regions like Dynamax in Sword/Shield or Terastalizing in Scarlet/Violet. The most popular gimmick is finally coming to Switch and thats mega evolution. This is why they showed mega Dragonite. People are buying just for that and Game Freak/Nintendo knows this, this bundle will swing things massively. Pokemon fanbase will dig in for that and yes Switch 2 version will lead because Pokemon fans care about attaining these creatures and not caring about how pretty the world because we spend more time in battle not the overworld.

What's the link between Legends and Champions? Isn't Champions a mobile game? 

Also, will Switch 1 version not feature mega evolutions? The difference between versions seems only in framerate/resolution