I don't see a scenario where it sells less than 10m based on the IP, when it's releasing and how good it looks. Voted for 15m+.

Voted for 10-12.5m in the poll but I'd give it a 10-15m range.

I voted for the 10M-12.5M option but frankly that's just me being slightly conservative on the matter. Like we all were with our predictions with early Switch titles, before we understood how most of the bigger titles were experiencing juggernaut sales.

20M could be a "maybe" possibility in the long run.

I hope it does 20M+, but I just have to be more cautious. I mena Tropical Freeze is one of the best 2D games ever and that did like 3M on the Switch. It deserved SO much more.

Voted 12.5-15mil.

While it's no Mario, it is a big 3D Nintendo platformer coming out at a time when there is literally not a single other big new one-player game on the system and won't be for several months. For the probably 7 or 8 million people who have/will buy the S2 in the first 4 months, it's the only big new single-player AAA game available for purchase. And Nintendo definitely put major effort into it to try to make it a top shelf platformer companion series alongside Mario.

I have no idea how great it will end up being, personally I haven't been very interested in DK platformers since the original SNES DKC games, but the fact that Nintendo clearly gave it the first rate 'Mario' treatment and the fact that it's gonna have several months as the only major single player game out on the system for several months when millions of people are gonna be looking around for what else to do with their S2 besides play Mario Kart World or old Switch games, it definitely has a good chance to rack up a bunch of millions of sales in this initial several month dry period for the system.

If it ends up being a classic and very well received game I could see it hitting 20m. But I'd say 10m is absolute guaranteed regardless of quality (like even if it was the bloated mediocre mess that DK64 was, which still sold well off of nothing but hype) since Nintendo basically set things up so that it's the only big new solo game to play for a long time on the system.

Just to be clear - tropical freeze has sold just under 5M as of last reporting 3 years ago. 

I also used it to guide my estimate - I figured if an overpriced Wii u port can sell 5 mil, a new 3d game will sell 10-12. 

I hope so. Yeah, it looks like it has sold about 4.6M on Switch 2. Not bad, but NSMBUD has sold over 18M and Tropical Freeze is WAY better than that game.

20+ I believe.

It's a launch year game like BotW and Oddesey. And yes I do believe Nintendo views it as such a tentpole game that will keep on selling.

To add, I think a Mario 3D game won't arrive till midgen for Switch2, making this THE big 3D platformer for a while.

Yeah I'm gonna err on the side of caution and go with 10-12.5 million as well, as the IP has never passed the 10 million mark before, but then again the same was true of Zelda before BOTW, Luigi's Mansion before 3, or Mario Party before SMP, so if Switch 2 turns out to inherit its predecessor's ability to move software, then over 20m could indeed be possible.

There hasn't been a new DK in over a decade so we don't really have a good indicator of the IP's potential in the modern marketplace.

Being a launch window game will help immensely, I think. Going with 15-17.5 mil