No idea. It's too early to tell right now considering the Switch 2 just launched last week.

Where did you find that number?

1.22 million units in Japan alone?
I don't see why anyone would doubt the claim of 3 million units globally.

Looks like the source is from here.

https://nintendosoup.com/nintendo-switch-2-day-one-shipment-in-japan-estimated-to-be-over-1-2-million-units/

Consolidated survey results from the first two My Nintendo Store Switch 2 pre-order lotteries, as well as other pre-order lotteries organized by other Japanese retailers, have given us a better understanding of the stock situation in Japan.

According to survey results for the second My Nintendo Store pre-order lottery, 6.6% of those who applied for the Japanese-Language Mario Kart World set were selected to purchase it, followed by 3.3% for the Japanese-Language standalone system and 62.3% for the Multi-Language System. Overall, the success rates are lower than what we’ve seen in the first lottery, with the exception of the Multi-Language System.

When comparing and extrapolating the results from the second My Nintendo Store pre-order lottery, it was revealed that 281,426 systems were allocated to it. That’s about 54% of the 517,987 systems allocated to the first pre-order lottery. This means that 799,413 units have been allocated to both My Nintendo Store lotteries so far.

As for other Japanese retailers such as Amazon Japan and Yodobashi Camera, it is estimated that 428,257 sets have been allocated to them. Combining the estimated My Nintendo Store and Japanese retail allocations, the day one shipment in Japan is expected to be 1,227,670 units, which would make it one of the biggest console launches in Japan’s history.

Keep in mind that pre-orders from the first two My Nintendo Store pre-order lotteries, as well as the current Japanese retail lotteries, are all expected to be delivered at launch on June 5, 2025. The survey results are not indicative of the actual number of units allocated to Japan, but the real shipment number should be somewhere close to it.

https://nintendosoup.com/nintendo-switch-2-day-one-shipment-in-japan-estimated-to-be-over-1-2-million-units/

This news is from late May.
There was a third lottery (included in the launch day shipments) until May 28, but the article does not include that.

So the actual number of shipments is probably a bit higher.

I haven't posted in this thread since a month ago. During that time Sony announced a forecast of only 15m for this fiscal year and they increased the price of certain PS5 SKUs in various countries. Obviously, this moves this entire thread into actual contest territory at this point in time, because previously it was expected that Sony's forecast would be higher than Nintendo's.

PS5 demand is already established, so there's a high probability that it will finish this fiscal year right around Sony's expectations. I might add that their forecast is sensible in light of them opting for profits over unit sales. Calendar year shipments should fall into the range of 15-16m.

The critical months for Switch 2 will be July, August and September. If it can maintain high demand in most markets worldwide throughout these months, then it will be well on track to exceed Nintendo's forecast, and it absolutely has to perform above expectations to win this contest in calendar year 2025. It cannot afford to have a slump. Breaking it down by quarter, shipments have to be 4m+ in CQ2, ~4m in CQ3 and 8m+ in CQ4 to finish at 16m+. This would be record-shattering, but it was clear all along that that is what it takes to have a fighting chance.

Right now the odds still favor the PS5 (I give it a 80% chance), but I don't consider a Switch 2 victory as outlandish as before anymore.

I'm sure it'll be Switch 2

"Nintendo has announced that the Nintendo Switch 2 has sold over 3.5 million units worldwide in its first four days on sale."

Looks like ~4 million Q1 (June 2025) for Switch 2 might be a gross lowball and PS5 might be the one that actually had no shot at all. 3.5 million sellthrough in its opening weekend is absurd, we have evidence of resupply of Switch 2 during June ie it's not fully soldout, and Switch 2 consoles in transit count as shipped. This all means that it's looking quite likely the Q1 shipments are between 5 to 6 million. Let that sink in for a second, Switch 2 and PS5 might be tied by the end of June!

Nintendo had a sell trough of 3,5 million units at launch. That could mean shipped units are around 4,5 million as of now. That means that Switch 2 is already competitive with PS5 shipments during 2025. So Switch 2 has a fair chance to compete for the top spot in 2025 with the PS5.

I also think Nintendo consoles are usually the console that sees the biggest growth in sales during the holiday periods, due to its family appeal. That means if Switch 2 and PS5 is roughly tied until the holiday period, Switch 2 should surpass PS5 during the holidays, due to that historic pattern of holidays often boosting Nintendo sales the most in percentage terms.