I haven't posted in this thread since a month ago. During that time Sony announced a forecast of only 15m for this fiscal year and they increased the price of certain PS5 SKUs in various countries. Obviously, this moves this entire thread into actual contest territory at this point in time, because previously it was expected that Sony's forecast would be higher than Nintendo's.
PS5 demand is already established, so there's a high probability that it will finish this fiscal year right around Sony's expectations. I might add that their forecast is sensible in light of them opting for profits over unit sales. Calendar year shipments should fall into the range of 15-16m.
The critical months for Switch 2 will be July, August and September. If it can maintain high demand in most markets worldwide throughout these months, then it will be well on track to exceed Nintendo's forecast, and it absolutely has to perform above expectations to win this contest in calendar year 2025. It cannot afford to have a slump. Breaking it down by quarter, shipments have to be 4m+ in CQ2, ~4m in CQ3 and 8m+ in CQ4 to finish at 16m+. This would be record-shattering, but it was clear all along that that is what it takes to have a fighting chance.
Right now the odds still favor the PS5 (I give it a 80% chance), but I don't consider a Switch 2 victory as outlandish as before anymore.
Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV will outsell Super Smash Bros. Brawl. I was wrong.
