I think that the Switch 2 is in early troubles and will face significant problems after his launch. I said this as a big and longtime Nintendo fan, who only plays Nintendo consoles and and some PC.

To begin, the obvious is that the console is too expensive. This is a problem as positionnig the console as a premium product has always an effect on sales. But the price of the console isn't the biggest problem, it's expensive but a lot of people can afford it or save to buy it.
The price of the games is a much much bigger problems. Where I live I can buy physical games for around 55€ (Zelda TOK) or even 40-45€ games for smaller games like Animal Crossing, Mario and Luigi... 90€ or 80€ for physical games are a MASSIVE increase which can not be justified in any shape or form. It's plain robbery and a massive mistake and misreading of its market.

Nintendo is creating a scenario that will cripple the standing and the hype around the console before release. It's Nintendo's PS3 moment, about the price of games.

Also, the content showed in the Nintendo direct is quite underwhelming and showed nothing that can help to sell the console.
- DuskBloods looked cool but is a 2026 title and will do nothing to sell the console anyway
- Donkey Kong Bananza looks more like a side title than a masterpiece game. The lack of Mario 3D is really disappointing
- The Sakurai game is Kirby air riders, based on a GC game that was considered as a very average gameand which flopped hardcore
- The ports will do nothing to sell the consoles, as well as the updates for Switch games
- The wheelchair game looked like a Wii sport Demo.

Only Mario Kart remains to sell the console, and it looks very good. But it will be very hard to sell a 500€ console juste for one game. Mario Kart isn't Zelda or 3D Mario. It sells to everyone but it's not necessarily the game that people can't wait to play on day 1. Especially when the excellent Mario Kart 8 is still around.

For all these reasons i think that Nintendo is putting the Switch 2 in a bad place. It will probably sells decently at lauch, but could crater fast in the summer and the end of the year.

You cannot say bad things on a predominately Nintendo fan website. You opinion will likely be shunned and be told how wrong you are.

It will sell a bucket load on release like all consoles do on their release days; however, the game prices are what will destroy it. £75 quid for a game, on your bike Nintendo. Maybe the Americans do not have a standard of living crisis? The UK and Europe most certainly do and only the wealthy (or dumb) are going to pay those prices. I will stick to PC gaming where you short term expenses really do work out for the long term.

Physical games are at an end, it's better to just look at the digital pricing as the actual price.

Inflation is a thing too, this idea that Nintendo was always to going to stay in that $300-$400 range with $50 games forever was nonsense.

The other thing is the majority of their buyer base today is adults with their own disposable income, children are a minority part of the market for them (still important, but hasn't been the majority for a while).

Donkey Kong looks like Odyssey 2 just with DK instead of Mario ... that's fine I would say. Mario Kart is by far Nintendo's biggest franchise, way bigger than any platformer. Those two right out of the gate basically + Metroid Prime 4 presumably not too far after that (at 120 FPS or 4K/60 for Switch 2) are not too shabby at all. 

The presentation of the Direct was kinda all over the place and not the best, but the software is pretty strong IMO. 

I am myself a big Nintendo fan.

And I am a bit worried when I see Nintendo going a path that could divide per 2 or 3 their install base for their next console.

I don't see any scenario in which it sells less than 80m. It will sell in the 100-120m range imo. The console is marginally more expensive than I expected and the physical game price is a big shock to me also, so that has dampened my expectations somewhat, but not enough that I think it's in trouble. I've always expected it to sell worse than the Switch 1 lifetime.

I'm still confident it will break the 100m mark.

We're not in PS3 territory here, we'd be in Xbox One right after they 180'd and launched in the worst case scenario for Switch 2.
PS3 was a home console with then up-to date specs for a generational leap, but the price was outrageous.
Xbox 360 delivered in the specs department and had more games people wanted. Wii was an engineering potato, but had Nintendo games people wanted to play.
Knowing what we know right now, 20 million units from June 5 2025 to June 4 2026 could be a tough ask. But 10 million a tough ask? Highly unlikely.
Switch 2 might be more expensive than we hoped, especially for games and the Pro Controller, but there's still a lot to get people excited.

It's a handheld Nintendo system, which guarantees at least 20 million in Japan alone. But yeah, I don't think it will reach they sales totals of the Switch 1.

Unless Nintendo make a U turn around the pricing of the games, I could see it selling around 50-60 millions. Could be less if the bad buzz materializes.  I think that reparing the damage of a bad launch and a bad buzz is the hardest. Sony succeded with the PS3 but it took a lot of time.

Launch titles:
Mario Kart World
Nintendo Switch 2 Welcome Tour (paid game)
Street Fighter 6
Split Fiction
Hogwarts Legacy
Hitman World of Assassination
Bravely Default Flying Fairy HD Remaster
Yakuza 0 Director's Cut
Deltarune Chapters 1-4
Civilization VII
Survival Kids
Cyberpunk 2077 Ultimate Edition
Kunitsu-Gami: Path of the Goddess
Puyo Puyo Tetris 2S
Rune Factory: Guardians of Azuma
Nobunaga's Ambition: Awakening Complete Edition
Fast Fusion
Fortnite
Arcade Archives 2 Ridge Racer
The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild Nintendo Switch 2 Edition
The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom Nintendo Switch 2 Edition

^ taken from ResetERA.

These are the launch titles you get with it.
Most of that is playable otherplaces, or already played.

So your spending 450$ for the console, and 80$ for Mario Kart.....
It just wasn't appealing enough for me.
Its price is too high, its more expensive than a PS5 digital, and those game prices.

The higher priced games is going to become industry standard, even on PS5/PS6, new games will be $70-90 new. Nintendo joining the party is the last nail in the coffin for people who thought games would forever be $50 new.