Wow very confusing post. 

1. When has Astrobot ever called itself the mario killer? 

2. What studio just closed? Team Asobi made the game and they are still around.

Indeed, it´s hard to seriously engage in discussion when fundamental facts are taken as optional.
When obviously Sony never referred to Mario in this way, and I doubt anybody could find that quote in discussion here.
That´s just what is called a strawman, used by people who think they are the center of discourse.
I´m not sure why falsely ascribing statements to others (real people or companies) is allowed behavior here.

And obviously closing Japan Studios while keeping Team Asobi working is not a sign of Astro´s underperformance.
If anything that demonstrates the exact opposite.

They didn't give an update on Helldivers either but we know that it's been selling huge amounts  and top 10 in steam all year. Equally by this logic they would of never given us the 1.5m update in November for Astro if they felt it wasn't doing well.

More likely Sony only cares to initially establish that a game is doing well and does not care much to offer official updates beyond that. Most of our 1st party data has come from unofficial sources or the studios celebrating milestones themselves 

the fact that it was made by like 30-40 devs in a short time period..... I bet even at like 2m copies sold, its more than made back its development costs.

At some point, we need to stop expecting infinite growth and money made.
Honestly any game that makes its cost back and then some, is a success.
Like if they have enough to give another game a go, after the one that just released, that a success.

Helldivers 2, sold over 12m in like ~80 something days after its release.
Its been a year now.. here in early feb it was #4 in global sellers on Steam.
Its been high on playstation too.... it is still selling really well.

Honestly wouldn't be surprised if its near or above 20m by now (copies sold).

Then theres threads like this one:

Helldivers 2 was the 3rd best selling game (in dollar sales) in the US in 2024.
https://www.reddit.com/r/Helldivers/comments/1i84exp/helldivers_2_was_the_3rd_best_selling_game_in/

It is still doing fantastic, even here early 2025, numbers seem pretty decent for it.

At some point I think will give numbers for game sales, and we will see it over 20m.

65 staff(2024 employee count for Asobi, average employee count likely much lower) at the industry shorthand rate, $100k per emoyee per year(Japan tends to be much much lower than this rate however), would be a core development cost of $26m for 4 years of full development. Attributing costs from support studios and outsourcing probably puts the cost at no more than $40m(high end estimate).

So full productiom cost max of $40m and that's using the high end estimate at every opportunity: staff count, average employee cost and support studio cost. I'd put the likely development cost at $20-30m. Unsure how much advertising is for this game but maybe like 50% of production cost(somewhat standard number). So let's say $30-45m as my guess at total cost. $60m would be the absolute high end estimate.

Sales of 1.5m at $60 would be a gross of $90m. Digital sales were over 50% in the UK week one so very likely the digital sales are significantly above 50%. Netting $60 on each digital copy and about $35-40 on physical sales. Probably on average netting about $50 per copy(that's a high net rate but it hadn't been on sale yet and digital sales were higher than normal for first party, and obviously they don't need to pay 30% to platform holder) . So $75m net to Sony.

So I'd estimate it's already cleared the high end total production cost estimate. Based on the estimate range I believe is correct it would already be at or close to 100% ROI(return on investment).

In regards to it's total lifetime sales, I'd say R&C: Rift Apart gives a good indication. That game sold 1.1m at launch. Was around 2.5m year one and 3.97m after 2 years. So far Astro launched better and has shown much stronger legs so far based on PSN sales charts. Also, Rift Apart got bundled at launch, whereas Astro didn't.

Edit: in case there is any confusion, 100% return on investment in the first 2 months is incredibly strong. That would be like top 5-10% of performing games. 

Crazy numbers, I assume there will be a hit for Q4 with overshipment but still a monster Q3 sets them up nicely for their year targets

"supposedly Mario killer". Added to the library of Killer7 classics.

AstroBot is of course already a success and should be able to hit 5 million without any ports if it sells like the last couple of Ratchet and Clank games. All it needs now is some bundles, they should've done that for November and December.

Astro Bot continues to sell. 

Number 12 in January NPD's.

Astrobot was in development for roughly 3 years.
Your right about team being about 60, atleast google says so (I swear I heard others claim it was like 40ppl).

Thanks for mathing it out though, I was just assuming it was already profitable.
its a AA sized game (imo), with short development cycle.