Most if not all successful consoles got their first and often second pricecuts before they peaked. If memory serves me right, the Wii was an exception because:

1. It was already too cheap since launch.
2. The first pricedrop was minor.
3. It had a massive initial appeal to a special and temporary demographic (partly because it was too cheap!).

I called it from the early years of the generation that it would have poor legs and I was right (Some people at the time thought it could pass 200 million units lifetime. A minority knew it would drop like a rock). PS5 is yet to get its first pricecut. Pricedropping a console from $450 and $500 (or higher in other markets) in the middle of the generation is logically much more effective than dropping from cheaper pricepoints later in the generation. Keep in mind that the expected launch of the PS6 is 2028.

Even without a pricedrop, chances are high that GTA6 (if released in October or before) will help PS5 go up year over year at least in the US and Europe. And if GTA6 is delayed to Q1 2026, PS5 will no doubt beat its 2025. I don't think you understand how much PS5 is being held back by its high pricetag (especially in Europe, Sony's largest market), or how big GTA actually is. I'll quote this conversation in a year, or you quote me if I forget to lol.

The 3DS actually sold more in fiscal 2017 than it did in fiscal 2016, well past its peak.  Granted, it was only by about 480,000 units and it did have a new Pokemon game (not sure if it had a price drop) but it was the year before the Switch arrived and there was nothing on the level of GTA6 for it.

With GTA6 and aggressive pricing and/or bundles I could see the PS5 being up over 2024 (fiscal '25).  I don't think it would be able to beat its peak year, which is almost 21m, but >18m is possible.  I wouldn't bet on Xbox being able to be up year/year though, but then again, we are talking about a very low bar there.

Switch will sell 8 million this year

I think a price cut alone could turn it into a growth year.
I also think, GTAV is big enough to have PS5 not decline this year either, even without a price cut.

What the fuck is confusing with Switch 2?! Playstation 5? I am also confused? Is it just a better PS4(Pro)!? Is it just a Playstation with another number behind?! Why are people acting like retarded when a new console comes out thats not called Playstation?! Maybe i will be confused with PS6? Is it just a better PS5? Why can't i play physical games? Why is there no Disc Drive?

For the topic: I think 4- 6 million should be the range for the Switch, maybe more but we cannot say it now we have to wait. I wouldn't be surprised if it sold more...

Thats what i also say. GTAVI won't be PS5 exclusive no matter how hard fanboys wish for it. Also people are putting too much faith in a price cut. How often it was said that when PS3 gets cheaper it would trounce and rape the Wii? We know the PS3 got as low as 189€ and it did not even reach 90 million. Price is no real indicator of how well a system is selling, otherwise the PSP would be at 200 million and the Vita would be well beyond 100 million as well. Both where priced close to Nintendos handhelds. According to this theory Sony would have won both handheld duels but they didn't. The Gamecube should have outsold PS2 and Xbox according to this theory. We know it didn't. Why is the Xbox SS not the market leading console if cheaper= selling better? Why did the Switch sell so well? 330€ was ok but not cheap, especially considering the facts you where charged 70€ for a pro controller, even 90% for a pair of Joy Cons and again 25€ for a Grip! 115€ for a Controller? Oh my god the Switch was a flop. I do hope Nintendo does not die now. Such catastrophic sales the Switch had. Nintendo should go 3rd Party!🤣😂

I’m the one confused because all this time I thought I had a PS5 but infact it was just a PS4 Pro (I didn’t even know that was a thing wth)… I really should pay more attention to what I’m buying 😅

So much bullshit in one post!

1. No one is begging for GTA6 to be exclusive, you're being all bitter and weird for no reason.

2. Prices and well timed pricedrops are important "factors".

3. Price... again... is a "FACTOR!" (such an alien concept apparently!). The Series S never had a true high demand to begin with, and yet still, if it were priced at $400, sales could have been 5 times worse lol.

4. I don't recall many people thinking the PS5 would "Trounce and **** the Wii" after launch. Some thought it could  eventually shrink the gap (and others sang Sony is doomed songs) which it did alongside the X360 despite both consoles (the so called "HD twins") cannibalizing each other's sales.

5. Nintendo handhelds are a lot more desirable than Sony's. Lowering PSP/Vita prices to Nintendo handheld levels or lower would have helped, but the trade off wasn't worth it to Sony as they would have lost a ton more money in a critical time where they were really struggling, and yet they would've still easily lost in hardware sales. If Nintendo drops the standard Switch price permanently by a $100 even this late in the generation, the system would see a significant uptick in sales. But they chose to prioritize profitability.

PS5 beating PS4 in the US and lagging behind it in Europe is exactly because it's too expensive out there and the economy isn't good.

Yup, Switch sold more in Japan last year than Xbox did in the US (3.1m vs 2.75m). It's also close to two thirds of what Xbox did worldwide. Probably won't reach quite those metrics this year but it'll carry it a good deal of the way.

Edit: Also welcome back tbones.

Xbox is in decline because it made very clear you do not need to buy it for its games anymore (they'll go to other platforms as well). Also with leaving physical games behind, they have less retail presence that will hurt too. Finally it seems gamepass only grows on PC (if at all), so does not seem a reason to buy Xbox.

Switch still has the Lite that will soldier on for quite a while. Depending on the price difference with the Switch2, also the other models will still be in demand eventhough I believe the number of SKU's will be reduced.

I don't see how the Switch would not 'win' over the Xbox in 2025.