https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O4PRA18TFWY




"Going over a bad performance, why it's happening, and where Xbox goes from here. "

00:00 Intro
00:28 Xbox Sales History
01:38 What is Happening?
02:02 Xbox Abandons the Holidays
04:07 The Problem
04:34 2023, Activision, Weak Sales
06:00 The Big Question
06:28 The Answer is in Front of Us
07:22 The Aftermath of 2023
07:48 Xbox Hardware Losses Money
09:13 Getting Rid of Hardware Losses
11:42 What This All Means




So the reason this video is a topic is because less than 2.7m xbox consoles sold in the US, throughout 2024.... is like a historic low point.
What I find intresting is the notion that the reason they are doing this (putting software everywhere) is the Bill of Materials for the xbox hardware.
There were rumors that Series X, was a decent bit more expensive to produce, than the PS5.

Well wellfare hints at a loss of 100-200$ pr unit sold, in this video for the series X.
And suggests that rather than sell consoles at a loss, and try to recoup that cost, they rather just focus on getting profit from software sales (anywhere and everywhere). This means, they actually want to avoid having to sell a console, since it leads to losses, out of the gate.


He thinks the future, of xbox, the console hardware won't be sold at loss anymore (no longer sell subsidised).
Ei. future xbox will be weaker than then newer Playstation's, to be sold around same price..... or a good 100-200$ more expensive than Playstations.
That since everything is a xbox, that unit loss on sale, can be avoided, which is favorable for xbox (ei. they want you to buy their games on other platforms, or on pc/laptops/tablets/phones instead).

Which in my opinion will lead to worse hardware console sales.

What is your take on this? Is wellfare right on the money here? Is this the future of xbox?

I wouldn't have bet on the Original Xbox doing better than the Xbox Series did last year in USA. Obviously sales in 2024 were horrendous but I didn't know figures for the original Xbox.

But it's not just in the USA, which Welfare's video is focused on. It's the same globally.

Turns out that 2024, in a year where a system isn't being launched or replaced, is the worst year for an xbox console ever, including the original xbox.

And yes I do think that if they go forward with future hardware it will be sold at a profit, and thus substantially more expensive than an equivalent PlayStation making it a niche product. The question then is how can they get third party support for it with a likely very small install-base. There best bet for third party support is just allowing it to play any PC games but then they lose a revenue stream from third party software and I question whether it's even worth MS's effort to make a device anymore.

With Xbox hardware sales already at their lowest point ever it's going to be very interesting to see what happens over the next couple of years.

As I stated when Series launched, there was no reason to own an Xbox when all its games are on PC

The demand for the first 2 years can be understood as Xbox owners/fans who want to keep their backwards compatibility, gaming enthusiasts who wants to buy every console and gamers who wanted to play next gen games and couldn't get a PS5 because of stock issues

Once the pool of customers for those 3 groups dried Xbox need to count on a more casual audience. That's the moment Series sales start to cratter, because without exclusives or more competitive pricing point there is no reason to get one instead of a PC or PS5

I still think it can sell 40 million units, but I would not be surprised if next generation Xbox fail to meet 30 million mark

Microsoft is going all in in AI. They will be throwing a lot of money into their capex. 

It means they won't have money to lose for the gaming division. Not unless they sacrifice their quarterly EPS, which they 100% will not do lol. 

The advantage of Microsoft having deep pockets and willing to spend/lose to support their gaming division is going away. 

The problem is that Xbox hasn't cut its own niche. Nintendo has Nintendo games, which is why people buy Nintendo.

If all your games are also on Playstation or Steam then where is your differentiation? What makes me buy your system?

I bought one to play Halo Infinite in Couch co-op (cancelled), Forza 8 (sucked out of the gate) and Starfield (not what I was expecting). In the end I used it to play Forza 7 for a while and tried Gears of War 5 in co-op (wasn't what we expected either). My kid played some Sunset Overdrive on it which didn't hold his attention either.

The most disappointing, least used console of all time for me I have already had more fun out of the PS5 Pro enhancements than the Series X. The thing hasn't been turned on in over a year now. It's a decorative piece at this point (Halo edition). It has had more action playing 4K blu-rays than games.

Yeah, there's nothing wanting me to buy another XBox console next generation. The games come to PS now anyway, takes a bit longer but then without the launch bugs and more polished, running better on PS5 Pro.  So no incentive to buy Indiana Jones either for Series X, waiting for PS5 (pro) version.

Wow, those numbers are bad for XSX. I remember early on, I thought it would at least do marginally better than Xbox One, but now I think it's clear that is definitely not happening. There's a thread asking if XSX will reach 40m in its lifetime. I think it's safe to say that is not going to happen, especially if rumors are true that they'll release a new system next year. And of course if rumors are true that we get games like Halo Master Chief Collection and Microsoft Flight Simulator on other systems.

At this point, I'd be slightly surprised if there even is a next-gen Xbox console.

MIcrosoft seems more interested in being a 3rd party dev/publisher than a console manufacturer.

Microsoft is going to get roasted to the high heavens if they cancel their fifth Xbox, considering they already confirmed in 2024 that they're working on it.

I don't even think they should bother with a fifth Xbox. They should make an Xbox Series X Ultimate or something (gosh they're bad with names) as a souped-up Xbox Series X more capable than a PS5 Pro as their final console release. The future for them should be software, Game Pass, and licensing PCs with Xbox theming and an Xbox controller and Game Pass Ultimate subscription included. 

They could still make a new Xbox for the people who love their consoles and are invested in that ecosystem, but they would have to make a profit on each console sold.