The Switch 2 is launching in the coming months, and here’s the million-dollar question: Will it be the next PS2 or a Wii U-level flop?

The original Switch took the world by storm, sitting at around 150 million units sold and potentially reaching 160+ million by the end of its life. But let’s face it: not every Nintendo console has been a guaranteed hit.

Take the Wii U, for example—it followed the wildly successful Wii (101 million units sold) but only managed a dismal 13.6 million units. Even the 3DS, which is considered a solid success, sold less than half of what the DS did (76 million vs. 154 million). Historically, no direct successor to a Nintendo console has ever outsold its predecessor:

• SNES vs. NES (-21%)
• Game Boy Advance vs. Game Boy (-31%)
• 3DS vs. DS (-51%)
• Wii U vs. Wii (-87%)

This makes me wonder: Could the Switch 2 break this trend?

Factors like timing, games, hardware, price, and marketing will play a huge role in determining its success. Personally, I’ve always thought the Switch 2 would be well-received but fall short of the original Switch in sales. Lately, though, I’ve started to think it might come out swinging and have a real chance to reverse Nintendo’s "direct successor" curse.

I’m voting for similar success to the Switch—150 million+ units. Am I crazy to think it could pull that off?

What about you? What’s your prediction—and why? Cast your vote in the poll and let’s discuss!

I hope its another PS2 so hoping I am wrong on the following....

Neither - its not gonna flop like WiiU but it likely wont sell like the Switch 1. It'll be in the middle.

That's what I thought for a while as well, but I've been more optimistic lately.

Remember the PS2 sales keep increasing even now apparently lol

Next Switch!

It's basically guaranteed to be a success so a Wii U disaster is of the table. For how it'll do overall worse than the Switch is my expectation due to just how much that platform had going for it for most of its life. If the covid pandemic didn't happen the Switch 2 outselling it would be a lot more likely but I do think over 130m is more likely to happen than not so if it declines I don't expect it to matter that much. 

I'll add context to this part. For the SNES vs. NES the former declined cause of it having proper competition and the GB lasted over a decade before a successor was released while the GBA only lasted 3.5 years before that happened so if the GBA had a longer life it could've easily reached GB levels. And the other two declined so much due to Nintendo screwing up though both would've still declined regardless even if they were more appealing.

Between those four the Switch to Switch 2 looks like it could potentially be a combination of NES to SNES and GB to GBA since it'll likely have greater competition than its predecessor and probably won't have a massive phenomenon boosting sales.

I mean, it'll outsell the WiiU in its first fiscal year, same as Switch 1; probably even before the end of 2025 depending on when it launches and the games it has available.

Unless Nintendo screws something up, 100m+ is a pretty safe bet. But I wouldn't count on it beating the Switch.

I think the fact that its backwards compatible with a digital library will definitely entice some people to return. Will it beat the switch? Can't say.

A solid 120m is what I'm expecting from NS2. Coming off of the NMS1 selling likely around 160m, I'd consider 120m to be a great success considering there is hopefully no worldwide pandemic during NS2's lifetime and just the fact that it can be difficult to convince some people to upgrade.

I predict something close to 110m.

I think it'll probably do around 120m (+/- ~10m) as long as they knock it out of the park with 3D Mario and Mario Kart in the launch window and a couple more big AAA games later in the first year to set up that sales momentum, and price it under $400. And then of course keep the hits coming as they did on Switch.

Only way I see it selling under 100m is if they do something stupid like overprice it at $450, or lose some quality so the big hits (Mario, Zelda, MK, Smash, AC, etc) are only middle of the pack quality for those series.

They could get really aggressive on price, software, online experience, more models (Switch Home, ahem) next gen if they wanted to and maybe compete with Switch sales, but they didn't bother with any of that in 8 years with Switch so I doubt they will step up in those ways with Switch 2, but a guy can dream haha.


Basically 120m expected; if something is off at Nintendo this gen and we start seeing them just make major blunders then 100m or less is on the table; and if Nintendo surprises us all by eschewing their typical business conservatism and really trying to be the best they can be then 150m might even be on the table. So I'd be surprised if it does over 130m or under 100m.