I think it'll probably do around 120m (+/- ~10m) as long as they knock it out of the park with 3D Mario and Mario Kart in the launch window and a couple more big AAA games later in the first year to set up that sales momentum, and price it under $400. And then of course keep the hits coming as they did on Switch.
Only way I see it selling under 100m is if they do something stupid like overprice it at $450, or lose some quality so the big hits (Mario, Zelda, MK, Smash, AC, etc) are only middle of the pack quality for those series.
They could get really aggressive on price, software, online experience, more models (Switch Home, ahem) next gen if they wanted to and maybe compete with Switch sales, but they didn't bother with any of that in 8 years with Switch so I doubt they will step up in those ways with Switch 2, but a guy can dream haha.
Basically 120m expected; if something is off at Nintendo this gen and we start seeing them just make major blunders then 100m or less is on the table; and if Nintendo surprises us all by eschewing their typical business conservatism and really trying to be the best they can be then 150m might even be on the table. So I'd be surprised if it does over 130m or under 100m.
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