UPDATE - Switch 2 Sales Predictions: How High can it Fly?

[Olivernintentoal]

UPDATE: *POST April 2 Switch 2 direct discussions starts around post 160 (page 16)*

The Switch 2 direct was mostly successful (aside from the video delay). It didn't have everything I wanted, like Fire Emblem or a new F-Zero, but there was plenty to love!

Pricing: $450

Games are expected to be $70-$90

How did it change your expectations for the Switch 2?

OG:

The Switch 2 is launching in the coming months, and here’s the million-dollar question: Will it be the next PS2 or a Wii U-level flop?

The original Switch took the world by storm, sitting at around 150 million units sold and potentially reaching 160+ million by the end of its life. But let’s face it: not every Nintendo console has been a guaranteed hit.

Take the Wii U, for example—it followed the wildly successful Wii (101 million units sold) but only managed a dismal 13.6 million units. Even the 3DS, which is considered a solid success, sold less than half of what the DS did (76 million vs. 154 million). Historically, no direct successor to a Nintendo console has ever outsold its predecessor:

• SNES vs. NES (-21%)
• Game Boy Advance vs. Game Boy (-31%)
• 3DS vs. DS (-51%)
• Wii U vs. Wii (-87%)

This makes me wonder: Could the Switch 2 break this trend?

Factors like timing, games, hardware, price, and marketing will play a huge role in determining its success. Personally, I’ve always thought the Switch 2 would be well-received but fall short of the original Switch in sales. Lately, though, I’ve started to think it might come out swinging and have a real chance to reverse Nintendo’s "direct successor" curse.

I’m voting for similar success to the Switch—150 million+ units. Am I crazy to think it could pull that off?

What about you? What’s your prediction—and why? Cast your vote in the poll and let’s discuss!

Last edited by Olivernintentoal - on 11 April 2025