That's way too high considering the PS5 didn't even reach 1.5m last year. GTA 6 will help but I would guess the series is not as popular in Japan compared to the west so it'll only do so much to make up for the price increase harming sales. 

I don't know why people continue to believe, or at least act like it's 100% lock GTA VI will release this year. Many of the previous Rockstar titles have been delayed. Many games in general are getting delayed. And especially the big AAA games also are getting delayed left and right in the last decade or even more. Let alone when you threw game in development for 12 years. GTA IV was a far smaller ambition than the V and the VI and ended getting delayed. GTA V released almost 2 years after it's first trailer. And all the people truly believe and expect a far bigger and ambitious game to launch with the same window of 2 years between it's first trailer and it's release ? Absurd. GTA VI is getting delayed to 2026. Mark my word. I've been saying this since the game got announced. I wouldn't say it's impossible in the end to release this year, but I highly doubt it, and the chance for me are something like 80/20 that it won't release this year.

There's no guarantee that GTA VI will come out this year, and I doubt it can reverse what the price hikes cut off in terms of sales.

As for @Shtinamin_ predicting 2.11M, I'm not sure if this wasn't a typo. I'm expecting more something like 1M-1.2M, so if you would reverse the numbers it would come down to the same range.

Oh, ngl I always forget that Japan has different tastes in games than EU and USA. I will consider a change. With Monster Hunter Wilds, Dragon Quest I and II HD remakes, and Dragon Quest XII it would provide a boost for PS5 maybe each of those the same point (as GTAVI which won’t be a huge boost). PS5 will continue will have not as steep of a downward being at -18% YoY reaching 649k by Jun 30, 2025. With new console competition coming for the later half PS5 might be shuttered out. And the later half with those game releases, potential exclusives, and new competition that’ll allow PS5 by Dec 31, 2025 to reach 1.5M. I think it’ll be a better year than “empty” 2024.

Do you think Switch 2 is high? I do but it makes sense if Nintendo wants to sell 20M in 2025.

I doubt it'll be flat or slightly up this year but I can accept that as an optimistic outlook for it. I'm pretty sure the 20m thing is for the fiscal year, not just 2025 but either way I would say it's too high yeah. The Switch sold 3.3m in Japan in 2017 and that'll be with at least a couple extra months for its first calendar year.

Considering that Bloomberg did not specify what first year means. Many have interpreted it to be a year since launch, others interpret it to be a fiscal year, and others interpret it to be only 2025. I will make predictions regarding each scenario.

Switch 2 20M interpretation

Year since launch: 3.4M in 2025

Fiscal Year: 3.7M in 2025

Only 2025: 6.67M in 2025

Nintendo only need 1/6 of Switch users will purchase the new Switch 2 in 2025 to reach the Only 2025 prediction.

You say only but you should consider that even during the Switch's peak in 2020-2021 that was significantly boosted due to the pandemic it wasn't able to sell that much in a single year in Japan. The other two scenarios are far more realistic.

That sounds like you're downplaying the quality of the Switch 1 and it's software.

How did you come to that conclusion? I was just stating facts. 

Because you make it sound like the Switch only did so well because of the pandemic and people were stuck indoors.

Not at all. All I said was that even with the pandemic significantly boosting sales those years that it wasn't able to sell 6.6m in Japan in a single year to show the lack of realism of the Switch 2 selling that much in its first calendar year since that'll be less than a full year. It was nothing more than saying that even in that unusual circumstance the Switch couldn't do that.