Japan Consoles Showdown 2025: Nov 30th

[Norion]

Shtinamin_ said:

Norion said:

I doubt it'll be flat or slightly up this year but I can accept that as an optimistic outlook for it. I'm pretty sure the 20m thing is for the fiscal year, not just 2025 but either way I would say it's too high yeah. The Switch sold 3.3m in Japan in 2017 and that'll be with at least a couple extra months for its first calendar year.

Considering that Bloomberg did not specify what first year means. Many have interpreted it to be a year since launch, others interpret it to be a fiscal year, and others interpret it to be only 2025. I will make predictions regarding each scenario.

Switch 2 20M interpretation

Year since launch: 3.4M in 2025

Fiscal Year: 3.7M in 2025

Only 2025: 6.67M in 2025

Nintendo only need 1/6 of Switch users will purchase the new Switch 2 in 2025 to reach the Only 2025 prediction.

You say only but you should consider that even during the Switch's peak in 2020-2021 that was significantly boosted due to the pandemic it wasn't able to sell that much in a single year in Japan. The other two scenarios are far more realistic.