Japan Consoles Showdown 2025: Nov 30th

[Shtinamin_]

Norion said:

Shtinamin_ said:

Oh, ngl I always forget that Japan has different tastes in games than EU and USA. I will consider a change. With Monster Hunter Wilds, Dragon Quest I and II HD remakes, and Dragon Quest XII it would provide a boost for PS5 maybe each of those the same point (as GTAVI which won’t be a huge boost). PS5 will continue will have not as steep of a downward being at -18% YoY reaching 649k by Jun 30, 2025. With new console competition coming for the later half PS5 might be shuttered out. And the later half with those game releases, potential exclusives, and new competition that’ll allow PS5 by Dec 31, 2025 to reach 1.5M. I think it’ll be a better year than “empty” 2024.

 

Do you think Switch 2 is high? I do but it makes sense if Nintendo wants to sell 20M in 2025.

I doubt it'll be flat or slightly up this year but I can accept that as an optimistic outlook for it. I'm pretty sure the 20m thing is for the fiscal year, not just 2025 but either way I would say it's too high yeah. The Switch sold 3.3m in Japan in 2017 and that'll be with at least a couple extra months for its first calendar year.

Considering that Bloomberg did not specify what first year means. Many have interpreted it to be a year since launch, others interpret it to be a fiscal year, and others interpret it to be only 2025. I will make predictions regarding each scenario.

Switch 2 20M interpretation

Year since launch: 3.4M in 2025

Fiscal Year: 3.7M in 2025

Only 2025: 6.67M in 2025

Nintendo only need 1/6 of Switch users will purchase the new Switch 2 in 2025 to reach the Only 2025 prediction.