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CaptainExplosion on 22 January 2025
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Norion said:
Shtinamin_ said:

Considering that Bloomberg did not specify what first year means. Many have interpreted it to be a year since launch, others interpret it to be a fiscal year, and others interpret it to be only 2025. I will make predictions regarding each scenario.


Switch 2 20M interpretation

Year since launch: 3.4M in 2025

Fiscal Year: 3.7M in 2025

Only 2025: 6.67M in 2025

Nintendo only need 1/6 of Switch users will purchase the new Switch 2 in 2025 to reach the Only 2025 prediction.

You say only but you should consider that even during the Switch's peak in 2020-2021 that was significantly boosted due to the pandemic it wasn't able to sell that much in a single year in Japan. The other two scenarios are far more realistic.

That sounds like you're downplaying the quality of the Switch 1 and it's software.