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Forums - Sales Discussion - November Circana (NPD) 2024 Thread + Predictions

XtremeBG said:
javi741 said:

Guys did the NPD sales numbers for last year November 2023 include the sales numbers on Black Friday? Because if it didn't that would make sense why the Switch is essentially flat compared to last year despite being older since this year would've included the critical Black Friday sales that last year's didn't have.

I remember November 2023's NPD being a notoriously big drop over 40% for the Switch. That's why I'm wondering about that.

Also it really looks like Xbox is dying, even with the Xbox One Microsoft used to be neck & neck with the PS4 in U.S sales, but now it seems like PS is dominating the only competitive region Xbox has which is the U.S. I know Microsoft doesn't prioritize hardware sales anymore, but damn they still matter if you want people to get into the Xbox Gamepass ecosystem especially more than PC.

It seems a lot of people have trouble with using the easy and nice hardware by date tool here on the website.

Last year November sales were till 26th of November, which included Black Friday and the weekend after that. Last year Switch was down massively, compared to 2022. Which is the same case now when comparing it to 2022. But comparing it to 2023 US sales, sales were flat. The pure difference in numbers is 17k for this November, however this November the data is till 30th of November, last year the data was till November 26th. So it's not really that up year on year. Yes it's 4 weeks again, but 4 days where the sales are stronger were left out of last year's data for November, and are here for this November. If it were till end of November sales would probably be a bit down. Of course the final result is still very good for Switch, but it's not really up year over year when you take that into account, and also the fact that the sale offers were bigger for the system compared to last year. Also Xbox is a lot weaker, this also contribute to some chunk of the sales going to the Switch (of course most of them goes to the PS5).

However I expect December to be down compared to last year, since it has been down all year but November. But that is not something bad of course, it's normal for 8th year old console. People are getting so hyped up, it says up year on year, that they forget to make the calculations, and react like it's 20% up year on year for the whole holiday. 17k is not up, 17k difference is flat. It's so negligible it can't be really counted as up year on year. It's essentially flat because of the biggest sale offers to date for the Switch and the difference in the tracking dates. December will be from 1st unlike from 26th November like last year. Last year Switch did 1.3M in US for December.

Thank you for the response. So while the Switch this November while slightly up due to having an extra 4 days, the demand is still slightly lower since it was barely up despite it having an extra 4 days. Plus the deals this November are helping a lot too, but that's naturally expected to have more deals in the latter part of a console's lifecycle so I won't really disregard it as unsustainable/fluke demand either.

Still very impressed with the Switch still near 2023's November's sales, demand barely seems to be going down even this late which is crazy.



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Greykun said:

I think Sony won't resign console market because it's thier main market and realising games on pc is just a better way to earn some money from games that already been realised on ps5 before. They are way more traditional like nintendo then Xbox.

Corrected that. And thats the point: Their games get so expensive that they've got no other choice. They do not care about the "my playstation, my games, that no other person is allowed to play" fanboys. They won't make a loss on hard- AND software just because of some fanboys. Are you willing to pay 100- 150$ for a game standard edition? Are there at leat 10 million more who want? Then we can talk about exclusivity but when people start crying over a redicolously low price increase (60$- 70$/ 70€- 80€) guess what happens if Sony called prices like 100- 150$ for a standard edition game!! What would be costing a collector's edition? 500- 700$ intead of 300- 400$? Also get ready for hefty 50$ DLC. They will probably soon match current videogame prices. A high price to pay for exclusivity, nah? Only because some fanboys can shout "yeah, only on Playstation"! 



Norion said:

Xbox Series is in line with my expectations but the other two significantly exceeded them which is nice to see. Both of them seem like they're gonna end the year with a bang.

killer7 said:

Nobody is interested in the PC. 

The possibility of PS6 being digital only is growing more each passing month as ~70% and growing software sales are digital. I am afraid that Nintendo will be the last man standing with physical for at least another 2 generations...

Where did you get this from? PC gaming has grown a lot in the past several years and is bigger than Playstation as a platform. If Sony overprices the PS6 then some people will absolutely switch to PC due to that.

IcaroRibeiro said:

Sony has a big infrastructure and internal resources focused in hardware development. Their increase in hardware prices are an evidence they are committed to be hardware makers, as their hardware helps them to make their software and services more popular and profitable. If you own a PC there is no point in subscribing for a PS Plus for example

That's why they are moving away from lower prices and instead are selling hardware at profit, just like Nintendo

I think with exception of Spider Man most of their single players first parties sells poorly on PCs (compared to PS5), PC sales are not necessary for Sony games to break even, or even to turn into profit. They are more advertising of Sonys brand and games, if anything. Sony is doing that because they probably already exhausted the pool of consumers on Playstation userbase.

During PS4 days Sony was almost giving away their first party games for free, anyone who was interested in Spider Man, Horizon or Uncharted could get them for dirty cheap, so Sony likely figured out if they want their IPs to keep growing there is no other way other than releasing them on PCs

Not quite. God of War 2018 and Horizon Zero Dawn have both been at least as successful as Spider-Man 2018 on PC and Ghost of Tsushima has had a strong start with it having the highest peak concurrent player count among the single player games and having good legs so far. Days Gone has also done well though there is a big gap with how much they've sold on Playstation. A lot of that will be due to them releasing there first and what you said towards the end however.

If i look at PC sales, there is litteraly nobody asking for so called "high end PCs" in te store i work. Console games sell much better, its where the money is made. There is a reason for example Nintendo do not release games on PC. Nobody wants to bother with electronics who crash all the time and need to load/ install more than you can actually play. I would never even touch such a crappy device. I never needed it. Also not in my work!



Norion said:

Xbox Series is in line with my expectations but the other two significantly exceeded them which is nice to see. Both of them seem like they're gonna end the year with a bang.

killer7 said:

Nobody is interested in the PC. 

The possibility of PS6 being digital only is growing more each passing month as ~70% and growing software sales are digital. I am afraid that Nintendo will be the last man standing with physical for at least another 2 generations...

Where did you get this from? PC gaming has grown a lot in the past several years and is bigger than Playstation as a platform. If Sony overprices the PS6 then some people will absolutely switch to PC due to that.

IcaroRibeiro said:

Sony has a big infrastructure and internal resources focused in hardware development. Their increase in hardware prices are an evidence they are committed to be hardware makers, as their hardware helps them to make their software and services more popular and profitable. If you own a PC there is no point in subscribing for a PS Plus for example

That's why they are moving away from lower prices and instead are selling hardware at profit, just like Nintendo

I think with exception of Spider Man most of their single players first parties sells poorly on PCs (compared to PS5), PC sales are not necessary for Sony games to break even, or even to turn into profit. They are more advertising of Sonys brand and games, if anything. Sony is doing that because they probably already exhausted the pool of consumers on Playstation userbase.

During PS4 days Sony was almost giving away their first party games for free, anyone who was interested in Spider Man, Horizon or Uncharted could get them for dirty cheap, so Sony likely figured out if they want their IPs to keep growing there is no other way other than releasing them on PCs

Not quite. God of War 2018 and Horizon Zero Dawn have both been at least as successful as Spider-Man 2018 on PC and Ghost of Tsushima has had a strong start with it having the highest peak concurrent player count among the single player games and having good legs so far. Days Gone has also done well though there is a big gap with how much they've sold on Playstation. A lot of that will be due to them releasing there first and what you said towards the end however.

Sony is throwing in their own windows on pc with the forced PSN, which is why Ragnarok had less concurrent player counts than GOW 2018



Please excuse my (probally) poor grammar

killer7 said:
Norion said:

Where did you get this from? PC gaming has grown a lot in the past several years and is bigger than Playstation as a platform. If Sony overprices the PS6 then some people will absolutely switch to PC due to that.

If i look at PC sales, there is litteraly nobody asking for so called "high end PCs" in te store i work. Console games sell much better, its where the money is made. There is a reason for example Nintendo do not release games on PC. Nobody wants to bother with electronics who crash all the time and need to load/ install more than you can actually play. I would never even touch such a crappy device. I never needed it. Also not in my work!

That anecdote doesn't mean anything since it's a fact that PC gaming has grown a lot lately, especially among young people. Mat Piscatella has said that young people have shifted towards PC and away from consoles compared to previous generations and console games don't sell much better, it varies by game but there's plenty of games where the PC version has sold the most.

Nintendo doesn't release on PC at least not yet cause exclusives matter far more to them than the other two, it's not cause they wouldn't sell. And the rest of your reply is just nonsense. Yes PC's aren't as simple and are more prone to issues that require troubleshooting but on average they work just fine and absolutely don't "crash all the time" or "need to load/install more than you can actually play".

Qwark said:
Norion said:
IcaroRibeiro said:

Sony has a big infrastructure and internal resources focused in hardware development. Their increase in hardware prices are an evidence they are committed to be hardware makers, as their hardware helps them to make their software and services more popular and profitable. If you own a PC there is no point in subscribing for a PS Plus for example

That's why they are moving away from lower prices and instead are selling hardware at profit, just like Nintendo

I think with exception of Spider Man most of their single players first parties sells poorly on PCs (compared to PS5), PC sales are not necessary for Sony games to break even, or even to turn into profit. They are more advertising of Sonys brand and games, if anything. Sony is doing that because they probably already exhausted the pool of consumers on Playstation userbase.

During PS4 days Sony was almost giving away their first party games for free, anyone who was interested in Spider Man, Horizon or Uncharted could get them for dirty cheap, so Sony likely figured out if they want their IPs to keep growing there is no other way other than releasing them on PCs

Not quite. God of War 2018 and Horizon Zero Dawn have both been at least as successful as Spider-Man 2018 on PC and Ghost of Tsushima has had a strong start with it having the highest peak concurrent player count among the single player games and having good legs so far. Days Gone has also done well though there is a big gap with how much they've sold on Playstation. A lot of that will be due to them releasing there first and what you said towards the end however.

Sony is throwing in their own windows on pc with the forced PSN, which is why Ragnarok had less concurrent player counts than GOW 2018

Oh yeah that will be a factor in why the sequels haven't done as well so far. Though I think the biggest factor is the first Horizon and God of War had novelty to them since they were both among the first three Playstation games ported to PC which probably boosted interest significantly. There's also that it seems the sequels haven't been quite as well received.

Last edited by Norion - 4 days ago

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@trunkswd

The Europe estimates seem to be quite challenging this time, huh?

No blame, of course, because it is absolutely incomprehensible how they could push the Black Friday week completely into December.



Panicradio said:

@trunkswd

The Europe estimates seem to be quite challenging this time, huh?

No blame, of course, because it is absolutely incomprehensible how they could push the Black Friday week completely into December.

One of our sources of data is the monthly report from GamesIndustry, which has yet to be released. Rather annoying as the holidays are next week and I was hoping to take it easy for a couple of weeks. But nothing I can do about it. Hopefully the report drops later today or on Monday. 



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTubeFollow me on Bluesky and Threads.

I post and adjust the VGChartz hardware estimates, with help from Machina.

Writer of the Sales Comparison | Monthly Hardware Breakdown Monthly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

Upcoming U.S. video game market results from Circana:
Coverage Month - Public Release Date

Dec (Dec 1 - Jan 4) - Jan 23
Jan (Jan 5 - Feb 1) - Feb 21
Feb (Feb 2 - Mar 1) - Mar 19
Mar (Mar 2 - Apr 5) - Apr 23
Apr (Apr 6 - May 3) - May 21

Digital Data Sharing Participating Publishers:

[image or embed]

— Mat Piscatella (@matpiscatella.bsky.social) December 20, 2024 at 11:58 AM

Upcoming Circana (NPD) dates:

  • Dec (Dec 1 - Jan 4) - Jan 23
  • Jan (Jan 5 - Feb 1) - Feb 21
  • Feb (Feb 2 - Mar 1) - Mar 19
  • Mar (Mar 2 - Apr 5) - Apr 23
  • Apr (Apr 6 - May 3) - May 21
Last edited by trunkswd - 4 days ago

VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTubeFollow me on Bluesky and Threads.

I post and adjust the VGChartz hardware estimates, with help from Machina.

Writer of the Sales Comparison | Monthly Hardware Breakdown Monthly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

trunkswd said:
Panicradio said:

@trunkswd

The Europe estimates seem to be quite challenging this time, huh?

No blame, of course, because it is absolutely incomprehensible how they could push the Black Friday week completely into December.

One of our sources of data is the monthly report from GamesIndustry, which has yet to be released. Rather annoying as the holidays are next week and I was hoping to take it easy for a couple of weeks. But nothing I can do about it. Hopefully the report drops later today or on Monday. 

I don't know which time zone you're working in, but here in Europe it's almost hitting 5:30pm. 

Seems like there won't be any new sales reports dropping before Christmas, quite possibly not even before next week.

It's a bit baffling how November sales data seem so hard to get or be processed, since it's already 23 days past it.

I admit I feel like a little brat saying this, but I guess only because I don't know/see the reasoning behind. If they told me, it'd be different.

Well, anyway.

Thanks alot for pumping out Japan and Americas data at least, that's always appreciated.

Happy Christmas to you and everyone else, I cautiously think it could be expected that November data won't be out there even until January.



Panicradio said:
trunkswd said:

One of our sources of data is the monthly report from GamesIndustry, which has yet to be released. Rather annoying as the holidays are next week and I was hoping to take it easy for a couple of weeks. But nothing I can do about it. Hopefully the report drops later today or on Monday. 

I don't know which time zone you're working in, but here in Europe it's almost hitting 5:30pm. 

Seems like there won't be any new sales reports dropping before Christmas, quite possibly not even before next week.

It's a bit baffling how November sales data seem so hard to get or be processed, since it's already 23 days past it.

I admit I feel like a little brat saying this, but I guess only because I don't know/see the reasoning behind. If they told me, it'd be different.

Well, anyway.

Thanks alot for pumping out Japan and Americas data at least, that's always appreciated.

Happy Christmas to you and everyone else, I cautiously think it could be expected that November data won't be out there even until January.

I'm in the US and GamesIndustry is based in the UK. Not looking good for it to release today and very unlikely to release the next couple of days with Christmas Eve and Christmas. With the holidays I agree there is a good chance it doesn't come out until January. 

It has been a long time since the Europe report came out after the US (NPD/Circana) report.



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTubeFollow me on Bluesky and Threads.

I post and adjust the VGChartz hardware estimates, with help from Machina.

Writer of the Sales Comparison | Monthly Hardware Breakdown Monthly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.