I'm fairly certain investors will get bored and move onto the next thing before we come close to "AGI" if it's possible. It happens all the time, companies hype up this "new amazing thing" investors pump in money, it doesn't change the world, they move onto hyping up the next "new amazing thing" and I've said it before that I think AI will provide some good and some very bad things and thus needs heavy regulation but it won't change the world like corporations are hyping it up and there's a decent chance it will eventually "crash" and it's going to hurt a number of companies; Microsoft, Meta, Google, Nvidia, etc.

These corps are hyping up AI like a space idiot saying we'll send a man to Pluto in the next 20 years! Only for the space idiot to only reach the Moon, I mean that's still an achievement but it's a far cry from the promise made, these corporations are hyping up AI to ridiculous levels, they're pumping in billions upon billions (and not to mention destroying all their climate pledges in the process but that's another issue) and saying to investors "Don't worry, just another $30bn, AI will make us filthy rich eventually" and at some point investors are going to get bored, as they always do.

Microsoft, Meta to Feel AI Scrutiny as Investors Wait for Payoff

Of course they'll be some good uses, some bad uses, some promises will be kept, a lot will be broken, a lot of companies taken down in the process, as with every advancement and of course AI is a lot more than just AGI/LLM and has many beneficial uses outside of those things, I'm pretty much in the middle, it won't change the world like the corps are hyping up, it won't doom humanity like some are saying, it'll be a fairly middle of the road change, a fairly boring stance but it feels like everyone either goes to one extreme or the other when it comes to AI.

Of course there are decent uses for AI in videogame development, AI isn't anything new at the end of the day, it has been used for dozens of years already and it can be beneficial to small indie teams in other ways, it entirely depends on where/what/how it is used but I seriously doubt all these "worker first" and more altruistic uses of AI are what these billionaire twats like Musk have in mind, hence the need for regulation/unions, etc. Billionaires like Musk, Microsoft, and others, just want to use AI to fire as many workers as possible and pump out soulless factory-like games. But governments have been absolutely fucking useless at regulating AI so far.

I think Ben Goertzel describes the abilities of LLM's (and this applies to diffusion models too) pretty well at 9:05 - 19:56 in this video.

There is emergent "reasoning" and "creativity" but it isn't of the same kind or extent as a human, yet.

For example he says at 12:36

Too many studios are owned by big corporations, so the man who owns some of the biggest corporations ever is going to own them instead.

... He's an idiot isn't he?

You're lucky Musk isn't here! He'll be calling you a pedo too!

So we're at the point now where LLM's (Claude Sonnet 3.5) are able to control desktops in virtual environments and perform basic office tasks. 

For example, I work as an MLE/Data Scientist in the health-care industry. The company I work for has already saved costs by incorporating LLM's into their IVR systems and is now able to expand its contracts because of this. We (I work on an analytics/reporting team) use LLM's to help parse unstructured data and to help with provider enrollment form processing. LLM's (combined with strict rules-engines that reduce hallucinations to <1%) are also helping expedite prior authorizations. 

A peer-team of ours that creates RPA (Robotics Process Automation) processes is already experimenting with Claude's Desktop control for light-automations. Basically you can go to Claude, ask it to do things on a virtual desktop environment, and even though it is slower than a human it -- unlike a human -- doesn't sleep or need breaks. So many tasks can be automated using the virtual desktop environment. This is likely something that will be scaled in a year or so. 

In AWS they have a set of LLM (and classical ML) tools packaged in a service called "Amazon Transcribe", that is being used to automate insights and analytics pipelines from unstructured text data in our company. We use that data for some of our reports. It's also being piloted for use for transcription services internal to the company, in general.  

Reporting productivity has increased by about 20% with the use of coding assistants. Same thing with classical ML model production for prediction and classification tasks. 

This is with the current "dumb" models in a famously slow, highly regulated industry. Everything is just going to get smarter from here on out. 

This hope that AI research isn't going to have a big effect on industry, and that it is the next cryptocurrency or metaverse, is understandable given what that means, but lets not get blind here. We're looking at something that probably will be as minimally impactful as the internet and big data paradigm-shifts were. Both had their bear markets and slowdowns, but they still fundamentally changed the global economy and society. Sometimes for the better and others for the worse. Even if AI has it Dot-Com bubble moment (which it probably will), it is going to keep progressing at a rapid rate, just like the internet did after 2000. 

In fairness, I said I was middle of the road on it, not that it would be the next cryptocurrency or metaverse, two utterly irrelevant things that benefit next to nobody, Lmao. AI has at least got off the ground, I can't really say the same for either of those two, they had like a year of hype, maybe not even that, then came crashing down, of course now that Musk is in Gov they'll probably be another push for cryptocurrency to be relevant.

I'm not convinced it will change the world like the tech companies are hyping it up, I'm not convinced we're anywhere close to things like AGI, I just think it will provide some good and some bad changes, the medical field is one area where I think AI will have a lot of beneficial uses, it's largely the tech industry, like OpenAI, Microsoft, Meta, etc. Who I'm accusing of massively overhyping how AI is going to change the world and everyone's lives, it's just the next opposite extreme of those who say AI is going to kill us all and watched too much Terminator, Lol.

I'm also unconvinced that investors will stick with it long enough, they're already growing a tad frustrated at the level of money being pumped into AI initiatives without much return, when it comes to AGI...I'm really unconvinced and then there's people like Sam Altman who I really get a bad vibe from, there's something about him that screams "scam artist" to me, Lol. I'm not sure why Microsoft tried so hard to save him.

Developers turned gaming political, gamers are providing the equal and opposite reaction.

Games are expensive and require active participation.  Political agreement isn't enough to make people buy and play a bad game.  We literally just watched Concord crash and burn.  The target audience might have "supported" it in articles and social media posts but they also kept their money in their pockets.

Sorry, I didn't mean to put words in your mouth. Was talking more generally, as I've seen a lot of people who are skeptical of the impact of this research compare it to crypto-currencies and the metaverse. 

I think at the very minimum, regardless of whether human-level autonomous agents are created in the next half-decade or so (although I think they will be), even with the current technologies that already exist there is going to be a lot of economic dislocation. That alone is a "world-changing" impact. We are very close to a huge number of office and call center jobs being fully automated. These are median-income jobs that many economies (and more importantly -- families) depend on.  

Even without AGI, these technologies probably will be world-changing in that they are already having an effect on head-counts and potentially causing more un(der)-employment. 

He's a Nazi...lmao? When did this happen?