It just hit 34m there and still has at least a few months left until the Switch 2 comes out so 34m is definitely not gonna be the last milestone for it. It should be at about 34.7m by the end of this year so 36m seems like a sure thing on the surface but after 2010 the DS only sold a bit over 700k so if a similar collapse of over 75% happens in 2025 it'll stop at around 35.5m.

The Switch 2 probably isn't coming out in late February so that's one advantage the Switch has in that comparison though an extra few weeks or so would only do so much. The bigger advantage is the price gap between the Switch Lite and Switch 2 will be a lot larger than the gap between the DS Lite and 3DS a few months in due to the early big emergency price cut the latter got so I'd say 36m is more likely to be the stopping point than 35m. The Switch being guaranteed to get supported longer than the DS did after the 3DS came out will also help.

37m would be possible if the Switch 2 launch gets pushed all the way till late 2025 which I don't see happening but it's a possibility.

I just don't think there's going to be a switch 2, I think it's be a modular upgrade like a PRO console that's entirely backward compatible and games will still release on Switch if the developer chooses to and even Nintendo first party like with Twilight Princess on Gamecube but I expect it to actually last through the PROs life or at least most of it and then they'lll introduce another more powerful console and fade out games for the OG Switch or at least somewhere well into the PRO consoles life.

Nintendo aren't going to give up on a user base that's at 140 million, not this time anyway when historically the generation jump after a successful system wrecks them and they end up back at the starting line or having to reinvent the wheel. So I guess my answer is beyond 38 million. Generation are over, we all know it's coming to the big three sooner or later, the signs are there with games like Jedi Survivor going to ps4 and actually selling really well and FF7 rebirth only reaching half the numbers they wanted cause half the user base is not caught up, there are many other examples to point to but I'll just say this, Nintendo probably will probably just get ahead of the curve on this. Let's see how well Black Ops 4 does on PS4 and my hypothesis will be strengthened or not, I expect it to sell very well just like Jedi Survivor cause ps4 gamers are starved of new content and then will come a wave of ports that go back to 8th gen cause a lot of the engines used are exceptionally scalable to the lower powered devices, if they hoards of games haven't already got put into motion on their journey back to 8th gen. 

"37m would be possible if the Switch 2 launch gets pushed all the way till late 2025 which I don't see happening but it's a possibility."

Late 2025 is my prediction so 37m sounds good. Maybe 38m is possible.

36 million.
It should do another million or so by the end of the FY, then a million more after that before it's discontinued.

It'll probably end up somewher between 36 and 37M. I voted for 37M because I think it'll be something like 36.5~36.7M

36 million.
With the successor probably 6-8 months away, Switch still has time to get up to like 35.5m by the time it is replaced, and then with Japan being by far the strongest territory for the Switch this late in the game it'll likely be the main place in the world still selling the Switch with any sort of halfway real numbers in 2026, I could see it eventually stretching past 36.5m when it's all said and done, but not quite hitting 37m.

I expect, assuming no price cut, Switch sales pretty much come to a screaming halt around the world when the successor launches at just a slightly higher price point than the Switch OLED. Maybe the Lite will be a impulse buy for some people but that's about it. Japan is the only place I think will still sell much at all once the successor is out on the market, but still I don't see it doing much more than a million total once Switch is replaced.

I don't see the point of doing that since they can just release some cross-gen games for a while and take advantage of the huge user base that way. As long as they don't do anything stupid the Switch 2 is for sure gonna be a big success since for the most part Nintendo's IPs are the most popular they have ever been and lots of people are very hungry for a new more powerful Switch.

For the Jedi Survivor part where did you see that? Cause the September data for Europe doesn't make any mention of it getting a notable boost that month as far as I can see.

People keep expecting Switch sales to fall off a cliff, LOL. Even after the next system releases Switch will keep selling with moderate declines. 38M+ is not really that much of a stretch. Switch should be somewhat close to 37M by the end of next year.

You're acting as if the notion that the Switch will have a huge decline next year due to the successor is unreasonable when it's not at all. As I said in the OP the DS collapsed in 2011 due to the 3DS and while it should fare better than that due to the factors I mentioned the best selling model by a massive margin is the OLED and most of the people buying that are obviously gonna buy the Switch 2 instead once that comes out.

The main thing is why do you expect the Switch to only have moderate declines after the Switch 2 releases? Cause the only scenario where I can envision that being even a slight possibility is if the price is super high, it lacks backwards compatibility and in general Nintendo screws up with it.

I did some research, the top selling musician of all time in Japan is someone called Hikaru Utada, and Switch has not only outsold her top album several times over, but her entire discography.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_best-selling_albums_in_Japan

(How’s THAT for an obscure reference?)