I just don't think there's going to be a switch 2, I think it's be a modular upgrade like a PRO console that's entirely backward compatible and games will still release on Switch if the developer chooses to and even Nintendo first party like with Twilight Princess on Gamecube but I expect it to actually last through the PROs life or at least most of it and then they'lll introduce another more powerful console and fade out games for the OG Switch or at least somewhere well into the PRO consoles life.
Nintendo aren't going to give up on a user base that's at 140 million, not this time anyway when historically the generation jump after a successful system wrecks them and they end up back at the starting line or having to reinvent the wheel. So I guess my answer is beyond 38 million. Generation are over, we all know it's coming to the big three sooner or later, the signs are there with games like Jedi Survivor going to ps4 and actually selling really well and FF7 rebirth only reaching half the numbers they wanted cause half the user base is not caught up, there are many other examples to point to but I'll just say this, Nintendo probably will probably just get ahead of the curve on this. Let's see how well Black Ops 4 does on PS4 and my hypothesis will be strengthened or not, I expect it to sell very well just like Jedi Survivor cause ps4 gamers are starved of new content and then will come a wave of ports that go back to 8th gen cause a lot of the engines used are exceptionally scalable to the lower powered devices, if they hoards of games haven't already got put into motion on their journey back to 8th gen.
Essay Pro