Mass production of systems doesn't typically start until the same month of reveal. Noting Nintendo's recent behavior of aggressively cracking down on all leaks (e.g. it is believed Nintendo cancelled pre-orders for Paper Mario TTYD, Princess Peach Showtime!, etc., from all major retailers (excluding Best Buy for whatever reason lol) in response to one of their games getting sold-and-dumped-online early), I would be very shocked if mass production even begins prior to reveal. Nintendo is likely deadset on ensuring this system's reveal-to-release route goes as smooth as possible!...I wouldn't anticipate they're gonna gamble w/ potential mass production leaks as you suggest they might.

We already know there are still several games yet to be revealed and released exclusive to NSW prior to release of NSW2 after the launch of Xenoblade Chronicals X: Definitive Edition (3.20.2025) (according to a Twitter leaker who teased Xenoblade X one day prior to reveal), hence we have reason to believe NSW2 prolly won't be releasing until Summer 2025 at the soonest. With NSW2 releasing so late into calendar year, there's no point in revealing so early and potentially harming NSW momentum, even if harm is minimal (as they suggest it would be). There's no gamble in saving reveal for January, followed by release during second half of 2025. NSW is still selling, so not much reason to be moving on so quickly.

Just my thoughts.

I think you're wrong on this, but I'm not sure if I'm allowed to share the information, I'll just say it is out there and its in Nintendo's financial data if you know what to look for, but you'd really have to know what you're looking for. 

If they knew the launch was way into 2025 I don't think they'd even do this whole thing of "maybe we'll reveal this year", it would just have been a flat out "we're not showing shit until next year" (in a nicer way of course). 

There's been quite a few leaks on the Switch 2 already, we basically know the exact chip (Tegra T239 with 1536 CUDA cores), the specs, the dimensions of the system, magnetic Joycons, top and bottom USB 3.0 ports, screen size and type (7.91 inch LCD), RAM kind and amount (12GB LPDDR5X), CPU (8 core ARM A78), internal storage is UFS 3.1 (much faster than Switch 1). And apparently we got pictures of the actual motherboard of the system and pre-production shells of the system.

“I am wrong” is a little but vague….Wrong about Nintendo not having started mass production yet? I would like evidence suggesting otherwise. It would be incredibly unprecedented for mass production to start any more than a couple weeks prior to reveal. And the leaked photos don’t come from some worker at a factory producing NSW2 systems, but rather from a (very bold) worker of an accessory developer. Wrong about Nintendo not revealing during Holiday? idk well have to see. Wrong about smth else? prolly idk lol.

I can't believe people still think the S2 is getting announced in 2024. It ain't happening folks. It is mid November and December is a huge sales month. Announcement now would hurt sales. Sometimes life is just this simple.

Thank you! That sums it up perfectly. The absolute earliest would be a teaser in january and a showcase full blowout in march. Somehow i start doubting my original prediction of a march release. I would not exclude may- july anymore... No way its gonna be out in April... About the specs: PS4 level for the handheld should be the minimum. Handheld: PS4- PS4 Pro Dock: PS4 Pro- Xbox SS. Thats what i am exppecting. No way it gets any higher but also not any lower. 

Seems reasonable.  I suspect a ps4 is realistic, which is plenty for Nintendo games.  Brothership looks good on the switch, no doubt something like this on the S2 will be stunning.  

Is there any evidence that the mere announcement of a system has an impact on sales of its predecessor? There's some evidence that the release of a new system can impact sales of its predecessor, but I haven't noticed anything in any data set showing a collapse in a system's sales coinciding with the announcement of its successor. If Nintendo did announce the Switch 2 last month (or this month) instead of waiting until after the holidays, it probably wouldn't have any impact on Switch sales.

There is evidence that they are preparing to go into mass production ... like very soon. Trial production might have even begun already. 

The details are out there. 

It also looks like Switch 2  initial production will be far higher than Switch 1's launch period was. I'm not sure if that means a ton of units on day 1 specifically or if the plan is to have a large amount of systems to go in the general launch period (first few months). It does look like the comment Nintendo's president made about wanting enough units to deter scalping is true. 

If there is a delay past March/April/May 2025 I would say it's 100% because the software has been delayed again and they are really way behind schedule. Nintendo is preparing production of a massive launch though, something that looks significantly bigger than the Switch 1 (March 2017), Switch Lite/Mariko, and Switch OLED launch production. 

I see, so no evidence of mass production having begun, just speculation. (Though I feel it goes w/out saying that NSW2 mass production is being prepped, esp when the President of Nintendo is publicly stating the reveal will be within the next few months.)

As far as reveal-to-launch is concerned, Nintendo has stated they are looking to curb scalpers from selling systems at an up-ticked price. So, it would not be crazy to assume a bit more time btwn reveal and release compared to NSW (which Nintendo likely wasn’t expecting to need a massive number of units for, not as massive as NSW2 that is).

If there is a delay past March/April/May 2025? Well, if the system isn’t revealed this year, we won’t be seeing it until June at the soonest, and I don’t suspect a reveal is on the horizon as many like to believe. Additionally, I again point to the person who leaked Xenoblade X one day prior to reveal, who stated there are many more NSW exclusive titles coming prior to NSW2 after Xenoblade X.

The details are in their own financial data if you know what to look for and you can compare it to past Nintendo hardware launches (Switch 1, Switch OLED, etc.). 

They are gathering components for a massive launch that corresponds to a launch in 1st half 2025. Bigger than Switch 1. I think trial production has already begun like right now, there's separate data out there for that. There's a huge surge in component shipments for Switch 2 components (screens, motherboard, T239 chip). That separate shipment data is also out there. 

There were many 3DS exclusive titles that released after Switch 1 launched too ... I'm not sure what that has to do with anything. Did anyone honestly think Nintendo was going to cease Switch 1 software production after March 2025? Many Nintendo systems have continued to see software releases from Nintendo even after their successor has released, the NES did, the SNES did, the DS did, the GBA did, etc. etc. The 3DS was supported for like a year+ after the Switch launched with new games. 

I would expect Zelda: WWHD and Twilight Princess HD have to be Switch 1 titles ("exclusive" isn't really the correct terminology since those games will be on Switch 2 too and may even have enhancements) for example. It would make no sense to have those only for the Switch 2 and lock out Switch 1 when these games ran fine on a Wii U.