More shipment leaks are coming out ... Nintendo's production facility in Vietnam took delivery of 836,000+ Tegra T239 (the Switch 2's SoC) chips in September 2024.

https://universonintendo.com/switch-2-envios-grandiosos-de-soc-da-nvidia-para-montadora-contratada-da-nintendo-reforca-indicativo-de-producao-em-massa/

It's in Portuguese (use Google Translate) but he's getting the info from Famiboards.

I believe in the prior month they ordered a ton of Switch 2 motherboards and LCD screens (these parts are specific to Switch 2, not just any random part). But 836,000+ Tegra T239 in September is basically your smoking gun. Again they went from about 3000-4000 Tegra T239 orders in June/July 2024 to about 48,000 in August (looks like trial production) and then a whopping 836,000 in September.

This Vietnamese factory makes about 200,000 Switch 1 consoles per month (used to be higher, but obviously as Switch 1 shipments are lower these days, it has come down) for comparison.

That basically is a pretty strong tell that if production didn't start in September 2024, it was basically about to, I would guess they started production in October. I was looking to see a number around 200k Tegra T239s (because that is their Switch 1 production level monthly), 836k in September is massive. 

So the bets are now going for next month?

If mass production has started around October, which it's starting to look like, then I'll guess formal reveal in late January, Superbowl commercial on Feb. 9th, launch in late April 2025. If there were still lots of issues with software I don't think they'd have started production. 

That's fairly similar to the OG Switch, this time they likely don't have an entirely new concept to sell, it's just (well) a new Switch, so you probably really don't need even the same marketing window as the first one had. People already know the concept inside out, there's not much to explain. 

Next month referring to December or January? I personally remain firm in my belief NSW2 will not be revealed until 2025.

p.s. To follow up a previous user's message in this thread, here's a link to the forum in which all the details are coming out. You need to be registered and logged into FamiBoards to actually access the messages. Not sure what Nintendo doing to prevent leaks from coming out...sounds like the production sites are being extremely strict with security measures (e.g. no phones allowed), though they need to have some warehouses (which -- I've heard -- lack the same level of security as production sites) for these systems, no? How are they storing these millions of systems without having leaks surface?

Next month will be the first month that the odds of Nintendo revealing the Switch 2 actually become likely. There obviously were chances throughout this year, just the same way that there’s a chance to draw a full house on the flop. Not unheard of but not something I’d be putting all my chips in for. January is a very safe bet, and the odds just skyrocket from there.

Since i made this post already in December, it would be the month that come after this one.

2024 we can definitely toss out the hopes for a reveal

Yeah, a reveal was either going happen by October or not at all this year.

Never say never though. I'm still expecting a Spring launch

Like i've been saying since 2019: The earliest possible release date is march 06.2025. Anyone predicting earlier? A late January teaser is quute likley. In february nothing will happen. Its january or march. An April launch seems unlikley to me, if not march i predict may- june. But thats only if we do not get the thing out by march.

The NFL Superbowl is on Feb. 9th ... I think Nintendo will want a Superbowl commercial for Feb. It worked well to generate excitement for the OG Switch launch.