When will the Switch outsell the DS?

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Machina on 17 August 2024

I currently think Q4 2025.

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Slownenberg on 17 August 2024

Shipment numbers should pass DS second quarter next year (so by end of June), and actual sales will definitely have passed it by end of 2025, maybe even during the third quarter. I'd expect sales to hit 155m by end of 2025.

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firebush03 on 17 August 2024

No longer a matter of “if”, but rather “when”. I’d say by June 30th, 2025…unless they slash NSW price, then March 31st, 2025.

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archbrix on 17 August 2024

As of this writing (no new Switch model, price drop, etc) I voted for by the end of June (shipment numbers).

Officially out-shipping: Probably Nintendo's End of June 2025 report. Could slip until next quarter if sales slow down enough.
Out-selling: Definitely by/during the holiday 2025.

Last edited by archbrix - on 17 August 2024

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javi741 on 17 August 2024

I think imma be on the more pessimistic side and say the end of 2025. I'm thinking the Switch will sell around 10M for the fiscal year ending in March 2025 which would put the Switch at around 151-152M by March. The next I'm expecting a 2M Q2, 4.5M Holiday Q, and 1.5M Q4 ending March 2025. I just find it hard to see Switch having another big holiday quarter bigger than 5M.

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Bofferbrauer2 on 19 August 2024

JWeinCom said:

Never. The cliff is coming.

IT'S COMING I TELL YOU! ANY SECOND NOW!!! THEN YOU'RE ALL GONNA LOOK STUPID!

Quickrick is that you?

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Olivernintentoal on 21 August 2024

Nice job with the poll! I feel like this is the best bell-curve I've ever seen on a VGC poll.

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Can they announce a new Fire Emblem? A remake of Genealogy or Tellius would suffice !

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Wman1996 on 21 August 2024

I'm going to say Q4 2025 but it could happen as early as late Q2 to mid Q3 2025.

Lifetime Sales Predictions

Switch: 161 million (was 73 million, then 96 million, then 113 million, then 125 million, then 144 million, then 151 million, then 156 million)

PS5: 115 million (was 105 million) Xbox Series S/X: 48 million (was 60 million, then 67 million, then 57 million)

PS4: 120 mil (was 100 then 130 million, then 122 million) Xbox One: 51 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)

3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)

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javi741 on 06 November 2024

javi741 said:

I think imma be on the more pessimistic side and say the end of 2025. I'm thinking the Switch will sell around 10M for the fiscal year ending in March 2025 which would put the Switch at around 151-152M by March. The next I'm expecting a 2M Q2, 4.5M Holiday Q, and 1.5M Q4 ending March 2025. I just find it hard to see Switch having another big holiday quarter bigger than 5M.

So after the recent quarter results came in, I'm now thinking my initial prediction of Switch outselling DS by end of 2025 was too pessimistic, I now think it will do it by summer of 2025. Selling 2.6 Million in a quarter with not a massive title and only 10% down YoY was much better than I expected.

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Pajderman on 06 November 2024

Have a feeling that the switch will just kill it this holiday and thinking it will beat the DS shortly after March next year.


When will the Switch outsell the DS?
By end of 2024	5	8.62%
By end of March 2025	13	22.41%
By end of June 2025	16	27.59%
By end of 2025	16	27.59%
2026	4	6.90%
Never	4	6.90%
Total:	58

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