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Forums - Politics Discussion - 2024 US Presidential Election

sc94597 said:
LegitHyperbole said:

Back to reality, I seen a better match for next term though, the Republicans pass an amendment so presidents can run a third term. Trump Vs Obama. What a showdown that'd be. 

The Republicans are probably going to have to worry about re-nominating Johnson as speaker with their single digit house lead. They're nowhere near constitutional amendment territory. Constitutional Amendments tend to happen when the U.S consolidates into a 1.5 party system like it did in reconstruction (GOP became the dominant party for four decades) and new deal (Democratic party became the dominant party for four decades.) Sometimes, if the parties are close enough ideologically, like they still somewhat were during the 90's you can get a non-controversial one passed liked the 27th. The states would have to agree to it too, and while the Republicans have a majority of states, they don't have a super-majority, and most of their majority aren't trifectas. 

Having said that, I think Obama would easily win. He is the last president to get a genuine landslide. You had hard "r" speaking racists voting for him.If Biden could beat Trump, Obama easily would. 

Obama would crush him. He wouldn't even need to campaign, just do one speech and it's over... Well, unless Trump surprises us and fixes things which is a possibility. 



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Chrkeller said:
Ryuu96 said:

I'll take this to your wall since you're so insistent on lying and bending the truth of how the argument went.

Cool.  Have fun with my wall?  Lol.  

I shall! I don't like it when people straight up lie so I have to get it on record what actually happened.



Ryuu96 said:
Chrkeller said:

Cool.  Have fun with my wall?  Lol.  

I shall! I don't like it when people straight up lie so I have to get it on record what actually happened.

Cool.  A mod bringing up off topic stuff because he is a sore looser, then taking to a third place (apparently I have a wall) is admirable.  The PC thread is my favorite, maybe go for a 4th?  



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sc94597 said:
EricHiggin said:

Obama campaigned for Harris. He told the minorities, and woman, especially blacks, to vote for Kamala, because she's black, and a woman, which would be historic. Plus Obama was the first black POTUS.

Way too many of those demographics voted for Trump anyway. Barry doesn't have the swagger and charm that he used to, and that was his main sale.

And Trump campaigned for Kari Lake and a dozen other Trumpists who lose at worst rate than non-Trump endorsed candidates (do you remember 2022?) Harris was, unfortunately, not Obama just like say DeSantis (as an example) isn't Trump. 

Ya but DeSantis totally won Florida the first time because of Trump so...

Even Michelle campaigned for Harris and stood behind her, not just Barack.

You're telling me both Obama's, and Clintons, stood behind Harris and it wasn't enough? Didn't Bush get behind her late in the election? (maybe that didn't help)?



EricHiggin said:
sc94597 said:

And Trump campaigned for Kari Lake and a dozen other Trumpists who lose at worst rate than non-Trump endorsed candidates (do you remember 2022?) Harris was, unfortunately, not Obama just like say DeSantis (as an example) isn't Trump. 

Ya but DeSantis totally won Florida the first time because of Trump so...

Even Michelle campaigned for Harris and stood behind her, not just Barack.

You're telling me both Obama's, and Clintons, stood behind Harris and it wasn't enough? Didn't Bush get behind her late in the election? (maybe that didn't help)?

Let's remember what happened in 2022. 

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/11/09/trump-endorsed-candidates-2022-election-results

But by the early hours of Wednesday morning, Republicans were down a seat in the Senate, and the House remained too close to declare a winner. And in those contests, as well as some prominent gubernatorial elections, Trump’s overall record contained many notable misses. Several prominent Trump-backed candidates lost without much of a whimper, including MAGA gubernatorial candidates Doug Mastriano in Pennsylvania and Dan Cox in Maryland, House candidates J.R. Majewski in Ohio, Karoline Leavitt in New Hampshire and Yesli Vega in Virginia, and Don Bolduc, who he endorsed in the New Hampshire Senate race.

Again, if a severely impaired Biden could beat a far less impaired than current Trump in 2020, Obama a guy who ended his second term with a 59% favorability rating and who won the EC by 365 v 173 and 332 v 206, in his respective presidential elections would also easily. 

Obama won Pennsylvania by +5.3 points in 2012 and +10.3 points in 2008. Obama's lowest approval ratings were roughly in the ball-park of Trump's highest. 

And again, I say this as somebody who voted for Romney in 2012. 



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sc94597 said:
EricHiggin said:

Ya but DeSantis totally won Florida the first time because of Trump so...

Even Michelle campaigned for Harris and stood behind her, not just Barack.

You're telling me both Obama's, and Clintons, stood behind Harris and it wasn't enough? Didn't Bush get behind her late in the election? (maybe that didn't help)?

Let's remember what happened in 2022. 

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/11/09/trump-endorsed-candidates-2022-election-results

But by the early hours of Wednesday morning, Republicans were down a seat in the Senate, and the House remained too close to declare a winner. And in those contests, as well as some prominent gubernatorial elections, Trump’s overall record contained many notable misses. Several prominent Trump-backed candidates lost without much of a whimper, including MAGA gubernatorial candidates Doug Mastriano in Pennsylvania and Dan Cox in Maryland, House candidates J.R. Majewski in Ohio, Karoline Leavitt in New Hampshire and Yesli Vega in Virginia, and Don Bolduc, who he endorsed in the New Hampshire Senate race.

Again, if a severely impaired Biden could beat a far less impaired than current Trump in 2020, Obama a guy who ended his first term with a 59% favorability rating and who won the EC by 365 v 173 and 332 v 206, in his respective presidential elections would also easily. 

Obama won Pennsylvania by +5.3 points in 2012 and +10.3 points in 2008.

And again, I say this as somebody who voted for Romney in 2012. 

Lets remember 2024, where a super severely impaired Biden was forced out because they didn't think he could beat Trump.

Do you think Biden would beat Trump? Why run Kamala?

The first ever black POTUS, and black FLOTUS, which was insanely historic in 2008, campaigned and backed the potential first black female POTUS, and Trump still won, and even bigger than against Clinton?

Do you also think Bill would beat Trump?



EricHiggin said:

Lets remember 2024, where a super severely impaired Biden was forced out because they didn't think he could beat Trump.

Do you think Biden would beat Trump?

The first ever black POTUS, and black FLOTUS, which was insanely historic in 2008, campaigned and backed the potential first black female POTUS, and Trump still won, and even bigger than against Clinton?

Do you also think Bill would beat Trump?

No I don't think Biden would've beat Trump in 2024 because his favorability is in the gutter. But even 2020 Biden was showing signs of his age, and did beat Trump. Obama isn't Biden. Nor is Harris -- Obama. 

There was a poll on this topic released last month. 

Obama still has a 57% favorability rating (56% among Independents) and 53% of Americans said they would vote for him. That's about roughly as many who said they'd vote for FDR. 

https://ygo-assets-websites-editorial-emea.yougov.net/documents/Views_on_Past_Presidents_poll_results.pdf

And remember, we're talking about a hypothetical third Trump term after he's been in office again for four years and is 82 years old. 



sc94597 said:
EricHiggin said:

Lets remember 2024, where a super severely impaired Biden was forced out because they didn't think he could beat Trump.

Do you think Biden would beat Trump?

The first ever black POTUS, and black FLOTUS, which was insanely historic in 2008, campaigned and backed the potential first black female POTUS, and Trump still won, and even bigger than against Clinton?

Do you also think Bill would beat Trump?

No I don't think Biden would've beat Trump in 2024 because his favorability is in the gutter. But even 2020 Biden was showing signs of his age, and did beat Trump. Obama isn't Biden. Nor is Harris -- Obama. 

There was a poll on this topic released last month. 

Obama still has a 57% favorability rating (56% among Independents) and 53% of Americans said they would vote for him. That's about roughly as many who said they'd vote for FDR. 

https://ygo-assets-websites-editorial-emea.yougov.net/documents/Views_on_Past_Presidents_poll_results.pdf

And remember, we're talking about a hypothetical third Trump term after he's been in office again for four years and is 82 years old. 

And in 4 years time, if things are going poorly, you would certainly have a point.

But in 4 years time, if things have improved, why bother switching to Obama?

Last edited by EricHiggin - 6 days ago

Chrkeller said:

Nope.  I just don't care about semantic BS backtracking.  You flipped out, realized I was right and started semantics.  

You can't deal with being wrong, this election shows this.  THIS IS YOUR PROBLEM, NOT MINE.

And you are hammering off topic nonsense, great work as a mod.  

Highway Code aside, staying on topic it is clear who was right about this election and who wasn't.  Your tantrum doesn't change cold hard facts.  

Semantics matter, they're what drive people's understandings of a situation. It's practically what a lot of subjects like the law are built on.

So many of these conversations could have easily been avoided, if you were able to step back and say "you've misunderstood me" or "there's been a miscommunication", "Sorry, that's not quite what I was meaning."

Instead you like to antagonize and believe you are superior; rather than accept that you are a human being with the same kinds of flaws that everyone else has. The struggle to challenge your own beliefs. That you have the same struggles to communicate and be unbiased that everyone else has. 

You do the same thing that you're accusing Ryuu of. You got all upset when he said X, when you meant Y, and made dozens of posts fighting a semantics battle, instead of ever admitting that maybe the way you wrote things in the first place left room for misunderstandings. 

I hope you achieve some personal growth by getting off your high horse, and recognize that most of us are not out to get you.

And as a bonus, recognize that the world is complicated, and adding some nuance and semantics is important to understand how most things work. 



EricHiggin said:
sc94597 said:

No I don't think Biden would've beat Trump in 2024 because his favorability is in the gutter. But even 2020 Biden was showing signs of his age, and did beat Trump. Obama isn't Biden. Nor is Harris -- Obama. 

There was a poll on this topic released last month. 

Obama still has a 57% favorability rating (56% among Independents) and 53% of Americans said they would vote for him. That's about roughly as many who said they'd vote for FDR. 

https://ygo-assets-websites-editorial-emea.yougov.net/documents/Views_on_Past_Presidents_poll_results.pdf

And remember, we're talking about a hypothetical third Trump term after he's been in office again for four years and is 82 years old. 

And in 4 years time, if things are going poorly, you would certainly have a point.

But in 4 years time, if things have improved, why bother switching to Obama?

Well easily for the reason that the other candidate is 82 years old?

Things likely aren't going to improve. Even if Trump kept the status-quo with regards to the economy we are overdue for a recession. On average we have one every 6.5 years and its been 16 years since the last real one (the Covid pause might have staved us off a bit.) And that is without Trump's policy positions. 

Plus people like Obama more than Trump, as the favorability polls have consistently shown.