That's what my logical brain keeps insisting, but I'm afraid it's just cope. 

I just can't fundamentally understand why anyone who isn't 100% MAGA would vote for Trump, but it wouldn't be the first time his support has surprised me...

The thing is that Trump has never hit 47% and some things that have happened since the last election are January 6 and Roe being over turned so it’s really hard to imagine him somehow doing better in 2024. On top of that, his campaign has mostly just been doubling down on the things he ran on in 16/20 so it’s not like he’s doing anything to reach out to undecided voters.

At this point, I don’t think undecided voters are trying to decide between Trump & Harris, they are trying to decide whether Harris is good enough or if they should just stay at home.

A while back I said it was going to be 52-46 in Harris’ favor and I still believe that, 51-47 worst case scenario.

I waver. I think that everything seems to indicate a strong Harris win... but I know that some people are getting a totally warped view of the news due to algorithms.  So who knows what's really happening. 

I have said since the beginning. Trump lost the popular vote in 2016 and then lost an election in 2020. There is no way his type of people continue to support a man who loses elections. Support for him has only deteriorated over the years. The longer people continue to support Trump, the longer Democrats continue to win.

The Democrats knew when to abandon the sinking ship. Republicans are just a bit slower it seems.

I think the counterargument would be that 2020 was a referendum on Trump while Conservatives are trying to make 2024 a referendum on Biden. Inflation may very well be a stronger motivator than 1/6 ever was. As bad as 1/6 was, people just naturally care more about what affects them every day than something that feels less personal (which also happened four years ago). The big question over this election is if moderately attached voters are going to be motivated by dislike of Trump's personality or Biden's economy. 

According to 538's aggregate average which averages various polls and gives us what the average appears to be, harris is still leading the orange goof by 2.4 % . Trump has looked really bad this month though, and this lack of charisma due to fumbling speech could widen Harris's lead.

It's also amazing to get on here, where it seems that just about everybody hates trump with a passion. What is even more amazing is the number of assasination attempts that have been made against Trump. Is the total up to 3 so far? I've never seen a candidate or even former president that so many people hated enough to want to kill.

Yes, but we also saw in 2022 (when inflation was at its peak, we were going through a surge of border crossings and theft was on the rise) that Republicans severely underperformed in the midterms. The party in power usually performs poorly so economy+immigration+crime should have been a winning formula that led to a massive red wave but instead they ran crazy, Trump backed candidates like Masters, Walker & Oz and backlash from Roe being overturned led to Democrats gaining a Senate seat and barely losing the House.

Inflation is down, border crossings are down, crime is down, Trump is crazier than ever, abortion is still a huge factor and we have a new candidate that people are excited about so I don’t see how running on the same issues that Lee to them underperforming in 2022 will somehow work in 2024.

You guys can talk all you want. Yadda yadda yadda. Come Nov. 3, I will give my last opinion on who will win.

To those of you who live in Europe....This election belongs to the USA, and not to you...Put that in your pipe and smoke it !!!

Mostly anecdotal, but my partner lives in a Pennsylvanian county where Trump won 60.8% of the vote in 2020, and this time around there is a lot more explicit enthusiasm for Democrats than there was then. In his small rural township, that is 97% white, non-hispanic and skews older, there are a decent number of Harris-Walz signs compared to Biden-Harris ones in the last election. This is probably more a measure of enthusiasm (than a substantial change in local vote-shares) but even out there Democrats are much more enthusiastic than in the last presidential election, it feels like. For reference, non-Trump Republicans, tend to get 65-70% of the vote in this county, so there already was some single-digit vote-splitting in 2020.

In the neighboring county where I live (which includes Pittsburgh) things seem to be much more like in the last election. Inner-suburbs of Pittsburgh skew Democratic, outer-suburbs and exurbs skew Republican. But the city itself is very active politically compared to the last election.

Even with the Palestinian-Israel issue, Democrats and left-wing Independents (like myself) feel much more unified than in 2020. There were a lot of domestic issues splitting us in 2020 that aren't as much in 2024, and the Palestinian-Israel issue is very abstract for most Americans, although that could change if the war escalates further before the election and the U.S gets more explicitly involved. I personally don't like that Biden isn't standing up to the escalation coming from Israel's direction, which only can happen because the U.S supports it unconditionally, but it's pretty obvious Trump would accelerate the pace of that escalation by an order of magnitude, and domestic issues still do matter.

So yeah, if Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters turn out, which it seems like they will, I think they're going to take Pennsylvania and probably the election.

...Yeah, that's kinda what forums are for...