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sundin13 on 15 October 2024
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zorg1000 said:
sundin13 said:

That's what my logical brain keeps insisting, but I'm afraid it's just cope. 

I just can't fundamentally understand why anyone who isn't 100% MAGA would vote for Trump, but it wouldn't be the first time his support has surprised me...

TallSilhouette said:

Yeah, that's what I was saying; it seems like every other indicator BUT polling favors Harris so it's weird that the polls are still a dead heat. Maybe they are accurate, but if so it's a strange sort of contradiction.

The thing is that Trump has never hit 47% and some things that have happened since the last election are January 6 and Roe being over turned so it’s really hard to imagine him somehow doing better in 2024. On top of that, his campaign has mostly just been doubling down on the things he ran on in 16/20 so it’s not like he’s doing anything to reach out to undecided voters.

At this point, I don’t think undecided voters are trying to decide between Trump & Harris, they are trying to decide whether Harris is good enough or if they should just stay at home.

A while back I said it was going to be 52-46 in Harris’ favor and I still believe that, 51-47 worst case scenario.

I think the counterargument would be that 2020 was a referendum on Trump while Conservatives are trying to make 2024 a referendum on Biden. Inflation may very well be a stronger motivator than 1/6 ever was. As bad as 1/6 was, people just naturally care more about what affects them every day than something that feels less personal (which also happened four years ago). The big question over this election is if moderately attached voters are going to be motivated by dislike of Trump's personality or Biden's economy.