2024 US Presidential Election

[zorg1000]

sundin13 said:

zorg1000 said:

I’m getting more and more convinced that polling has over corrected for Trump bias and is under representing Harris.

Things like fundraising, voter registration, early voting, favorability ratings, general enthusiasm, no major controversies, tons of Republican endorsements, great debate performance, tons of rallies, making the rounds on major news/podcasts, abortion being a proven turnout motivator, etc. Everything seems to be in her favor while Trump is melting before our eyes.

I think it’s going to be more like 2012 than 2016/2020, which looked like it was going to be a toss up but ended up not being very close in the end.

That's what my logical brain keeps insisting, but I'm afraid it's just cope. 

I just can't fundamentally understand why anyone who isn't 100% MAGA would vote for Trump, but it wouldn't be the first time his support has surprised me...

TallSilhouette said:

zorg1000 said:

Things like fundraising, voter registration, early voting, favorability ratings, general enthusiasm, no major controversies, tons of Republican endorsements, great debate performance, tons of rallies, making the rounds on major news/podcasts, abortion being a proven turnout motivator, etc. Everything seems to be in her favor while Trump is melting before our eyes.

Yeah, that's what I was saying; it seems like every other indicator BUT polling favors Harris so it's weird that the polls are still a dead heat. Maybe they are accurate, but if so it's a strange sort of contradiction.

The thing is that Trump has never hit 47% and some things that have happened since the last election are January 6 and Roe being over turned so it’s really hard to imagine him somehow doing better in 2024. On top of that, his campaign has mostly just been doubling down on the things he ran on in 16/20 so it’s not like he’s doing anything to reach out to undecided voters.

At this point, I don’t think undecided voters are trying to decide between Trump & Harris, they are trying to decide whether Harris is good enough or if they should just stay at home.

A while back I said it was going to be 52-46 in Harris’ favor and I still believe that, 51-47 worst case scenario.