Sure though even with a good holiday lineup I don't really think it's feasible for the reasons I've brought up like the deficit it'll have after this quarter and the Switch 2 increasingly depressing sales as the fiscal year goes on. And there's surely not gonna be anything as significant as the combination of TOTK and the Mario film cause those happening back to back was absolutely massive.

It having a full blown Switch 2 version or not won't really change the impact much as long as it releases near its launch and is playable on it. With the rumours it would be surprising if it's any later than April and I doubt a full on price cut but temporary deals and bundles being pushed harder should happen yeah. I wonder if they'll cut the price of the OLED model or just discontinue it after the successor comes out cause rumours point to it being LCD so it would have a worse screen than that model if that's the case.

I don’t think anybody is taking the forecast as gospel but forecasts are a good way to gauge what they have on the horizon.

Last fiscal year had two of their biggest franchises release in 3D Zelda & 2D Mario along with the Mario Movie having a Pokemon Go effect for Switch. On top of that, they had a steady supply of smaller support titles like Pikmin, Detective Pikachu, WarioWare, Mario RPG, Mario vs DK & Princess Peach.

As of now the only titles confirmed for this fiscal year are Endless Ocean, Paper Mario & Luigi’s Mansion, all releasing in Q1. Nintendo wouldn’t be expecting a small drop for hardware/software if the biggest titles were GC & 3DS remasters.

Even if they miss their forecast by a good amount and only ship 10-11 million, they clearly have something relatively big planned for later in the fiscal year. Whether that’s new releases in major franchises, hardware revision, price cut or a combo of them remains to be seen but there is definitely going to be something notable.

I think Legends Z-A will have an impact. Just about the same as Legends Arceus, or a bit more since Mega Evolution will return (the only gimmick that people loved). It should sell near 15M copies.

I cant see them dropping the one console that is the main reason why it's hardware numbers haven't dropped off the face of the Earth. I can see them dropping either the Lite or the V2, maybe even both since those are a small portion of their sales.

Japan Switch hardware sales are holding up so much better than the U.S and Europe, April Circana sales for April were 130K and Famitsu sales from April 1 to 28 were 250K (71.9K + 71.3K + 64.3K + 43.0K).

It's crazy to see the Switch holding so well in the Japan while sales are falling so much everywhere else we get regular data from. 

Which is exactly why talking about fiscal year goal is simply premature. Japan is carrying Switch and it's believed that there could be some small form of exporting going on because you could literally buy a Switch in Japan and import for cheaper than buying a Switch in the US. This was discussed last year even until the holiday season had some decent bundles on Switch hardware. Switch in Japan could be selling enough to carry it this and maybe even next quarter. I think Nintendo has maybe a roughly 2 million Q1, 2.5 million Q2 (a decline), 7 million Q3 (roughly the same), and 2.5 million Q4 (Pokemon Legends ZA). This year I'm thinking we see more bundles and price cuts/new revision to carry the holiday season.

By impact I mean on Switch hardware sales. Less people will buy one for it if the successor is already out cause most people will just buy that instead. Nintendo will be fine with Switch hardware numbers dropping off big time after the successor launches though cause they'll want the install base of it to grow as quickly as possible and at that point software sales will be what matters for the original. The reason I can see them potentially discontinuing the OLED mode first is it wouldn't be ideal if one of the old models they're selling is better than the new one in a significant way that being the screen. Of course this won't matter if the successor has OLED from the get go and it would be nice if it does instead of making people wait a few years.

Playstation fans: "There is nothing worth playing on Game Pass".

Also Playstation fans:

Why would PS fans waste money to sign up to game pass to play fallout and MLB? fallout 4 has been out on playstation for 9 years they were already playing it way before game pass was even a thing same with MLB series playstation players have the whole MLB series available on PS way before it even made its way to game pass its even made by a PS studio LOL. The only 2 games you have on that list are the Grounded and SOT which MS decided on their own to release on playstation so then now why would PS fans need game pass when they could play both games on playstation as well too.